Potato Picks

Somebody forgot to post his picks, and now he's way out hoopie with no Internet...

Louisville -3
Texas A&M -3
Auburn +4
South Carolina -2.5
Florida +2
West Virginia +2.5

Betting with the Angry Old Man, Week XIII

Its that time of the year again kiddies; when all of our hard work at the gym is lost on one glorious hour of turkey and all the trimmings! Attach the feedbags, its time for a feast of picks!

OHIO STATE -16.5 v. Meeeeeeshigan
OKLAHOMA STATE -2.5 v. Oklahoma
LOUISVILLE -3 @ Rutgers
IOWA -14.5 @ Minnesota

ROAD DOGG OF THE WEEK:
LSU +3.5 @ Arrr-Kansas

THE HOMER CALL:
WEST VIRGINIA +2.5 @ (Eat Shit) Pitt

- Grey Bush

Shoeless Picks

Trying not to over complicate things here.

WVU +2.5:  Backyard Brawl, dont desert them now.

Arizona +18.5:  Seems like a lot of points for top three conference matchup in a good league and with Oregon's rival up next.

Alabama -4:  Tough line, but i feel I have to bet it one way or another.

Usf +11.5:  Think Miami will play it off, and quite frankly they are not that good

Lsu +3.5:  The mad hatter strikes again

Wisconsin -23:  NW minus Persa sucks

Pigskin Prognosticator Week 13 Picks

Competition Record: 31-37-2
Hard Leans: 27-15
WVU: 3-6-1

Week 1: Competition Plays 1-4-1, Hard Leans 1-2
Week 2: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 2-3
Week 3: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 3-0
Week 4: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 1-1
Week 5: Competition Plays 2-3, Hard Leans 2-2
Week 6: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 2-1
Week 7: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 0-3
Week 8: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 3-2
Week 9 : Competition Plays 2-3-1, Hard Leans 4-0
Week 10: Competition Plays 3-2, Hard Leans 4-1
Week 11: Competition Plays 3-3, Hard Leans 3-0
Week 12: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 2-0

First off, congrats to Grey Bush for the first perfect week. My season has been ridiculous. I am 27-15 on my hard leans (games I actually bet but don't like as much as the ones I select for the competition) including a ludicrous 13-1 in the last four weeks, yet I am unable to pick the right ones for the competition. Oh well, just rough luck.

To solve this problem, I am going with only one hard lean this week. For the record I like this card more than any so far this season. I probably need to go minimum 10-2 over the last two weeks and get some help from the other slag heaps in the competition.

Competition Plays
1.) WVU +2.5 at Pitt
2.) Boise St. -13.5 at Nevada
3.) Miss St. -3 at Ole Miss
4.) Uk +3 at Tennessee (Losing streak to Vols ends)
5.) South Carolina -2.5 at Clemson
6.) LSU +3.5 vs Arkansas

Hard Lean
1.) Bama -4 at Auburn

6-0 sluts...

No more commentary is needed...

Week 12? Picks

Rutgers +13.5 vs Cincy
OSU -3 at Iowa
Arkansas -3 at Miss St
V Tech -2 at The U
Oregon st +3 vs USC
WVU -4.5 at UL

Betting with the Angry Old Man, Week... uh, what week is it again?

So surprised the Pig-Prog wasn't all over that big Florida International-UL Lafayette tilt this week.

Need to post these fast so I can beat kickoff for tonight's game. Sorry for no analysis. Just trust me, I'm right.

WASHINGTON -2 v. UCLA
VIRGINIA TECH -2 @ Miami FL
FLO-RIDA ST -3.5 @ Maryland
WISCONSIN -4 @ Michigan
STANFORD -6.5 @ California

HOMER CALL:
WEST VIRGINIA -4.5 @ Louisville

- Grey Bush

Pigskin Prognosticator Week 12 Picks

Competition Record: 29-33-2
Hard Leans: 25-15
WVU: 3-5-1

Week 1: Competition Plays 1-4-1, Hard Leans 1-2
Week 2: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 2-3
Week 3: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 3-0
Week 4: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 1-1
Week 5: Competition Plays 2-3, Hard Leans 2-2
Week 6: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 2-1
Week 7: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 0-3
Week 8: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 3-2
Week 9 : Competition Plays 2-3-1, Hard Leans 4-0
Week 10: Competition Plays 3-2, Hard Leans 4-1
Week 11: Competition Plays 3-3, Hard Leans 3-0


Hilarious how my hard leans hit and my selections don't. Oh well, need a 5-1 or 6-0 week.

Competition Plays

1.) Tennessee -9 @ Vandy: Vols improving, Dores have packed it in.

2.) Oregon St +3 vs USC: Beavers tough at home, especially late in year.

3.) Troy +21.5 @ South Carolina: Huge letdown spot for Cocks and Troy is more than capable.

4.) UCLA +2 @ Washington: Simply think Bruins are better.

5.) Michigan +4 vs Wisconsin: Michigan has to cover a game eventually and reverse line movement is on my side. This will be Rich's first big win.

6.) Louisville +4.5: We've been dreadful on the road in the Stew era (5-8) and this is a classic sandwich trap game. We feel good about ourselves after a blowout win and we have Pitt on deck. We'll also get a desperate, highly motivated Cards team fighting for bowl eligibility. As with last week, I'll watch hoping I'm dead wrong again.

Hard Leans:

1.) Stanford -6.5 @ Cal: Hard to go against Cal at home particularly in a rivalry game but they left it all on the field against Oregon, have an inept offense and I really like this Cardinal team.

2.) Arkansas -3 @ Miss St.: Hogs just too much offensively.

Picking w/all my clothes on cause I suck

Wow do I need a good week.  I've been terrible lately.  I am not going with any emotional picks, just games that I feel comfortable with.

Wisconsin -4:  Line movement would indicate that I should stay away.  No reason for Wisky to overlook this game.

Tech - 2.5:  just cruising along into a big rivalry

USC -3:  maybe the beavers bounce back.  I just need some wins and this looks logical.

Uconn +4:  I like syracuse to win, even though they have been bad at home, but what about this game doesnt have a field goal written all over it?

Rutgers +13.5:  I am by no means giving RU love, but other than the Pitt game, they have lost close games all year.  Why should Cincy be favored so much?  give rutgers defense some credit

WVU -4.5:  why not?

Heres hoping to buck the trend and win two games this week!

Shoeless

Big East Scenarios

Pitt’s loss in Storrs last Thursday night blew the Big East crown chase wide open.   The Panthers remain one game ahead of the completion, but four teams linger just behind them and the BE’s strategy of back loading the season’s best games appears to have setup well, regardless of the surprising results in the beginning of the year.  I think the best way to breakdown the rest of the season is to formulate a few scenarios.  For the purpose of exposing it from the best case scenario view of WVU fans, we are going to assume they win out by winning at Louisville and Pitt the next two weekends and at home versus Rutgers, which is by no means a small task.  Charlie Strong’s Cardinals have been a tough out all year and certainly the Backyard Brawl is never easy, but that is the assumption we are going to go with.  We will also assume the three teams with three losses, Cincy/Lville/Rutgers, are all out of the chase.  The following scenarios are listed in order of preference for WVU’s sake.

Scenario A:  Uconn beats Syracuse and loses to Cincy or USF.  WVU would have tiebreakers over USF and Pitt.

Scenario B:  South Florida wins out and Uconn beats Syracuse.   WVU takes head to head over USF.  If Syracuse beats Uconn in this scenario, they take the win.

Scenario C:  Syracuse wins out, forcing a three way tie with WVU and Pitt.  A three way mini conference would not resolve the tie, which tosses it up to BCS rankings.  WVU would likely take advantage of national perception, a four game win streak and stronger computer numbers to likely win the tiebreakers.

Scenario D:  Uconn wins out, they get the crown no matter what we or Pitt do.  Probably the most unlikely as they have ‘Cuse, Cincy, and USF left with the first and latter on the road.

Now lets look at the most important games left in the Big East season:

1)       WVU @ Pitt:  Backyard Braw would probably produce only likely champion that could contend in BCS.

2)      Uconn @ Syracuse:  Beyond being rivals, this game plays a lot of importance in how the previous scenarios finish out.  Both teams have a lot of things going their way as long as Pitt gets beat again.

3)      Pitt @ USF:  Typically a good game and should be a tough matchup.

4)      Uconn @ USF:  As you see, South Florida plays the top stakeholders at home, making their season conclusion very important.

5)      WVU @ Louisville:  Toughest game of the title contenders versus a non-title contender, just edging out the follow up to last year’s track meet between Cincy and Pitt, which has lost considerable luster.

Syracuse and USF can also salvage a little bit of Big East respect going into bowl season by beating a couple BCS teams in Boston College and Miami.  It would also be a nice jab at the ACC;  I would bet on Syracuse to pull it out and a close USF loss in Joe Robbie.

Flying Potato-Week 11 Picks

WVU -5 vs. CINCY
Syracuse -2.5 @ Rutgers
Utah -5 @ ND
Oregon -19.5 @ Cal
PSU +18 @ OSU
USC +6.5 @ UF

Pigskin Prognosticator Week 11 Picks

Competition Record: 26-30-2
Hard Leans: 22-15
WVU: 3-4-1

Week 1: Competition Plays 1-4-1, Hard Leans 1-2
Week 2: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 2-3
Week 3: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 3-0
Week 4: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 1-1
Week 5: Competition Plays 2-3, Hard Leans 2-2
Week 6: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 2-1
Week 7: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 0-3
Week 8: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 3-2
Week 9 : Competition Plays 2-3-1, Hard Leans 4-0
Week 10: Competition Plays 3-2, Hard Leans 4-1

Huge shock that yet again I hit a far better percentage with the Hard Leans than the Competition plays. Actually had 5 adds last weekend and went 4-1 for an incredible 11-4 weekend. None of that matters in this though. At least I closed the gap and sit a reasonable 3.5 games back with 3 weeks left.

Motivation or lack thereof is a huge factor at this point in the season. That theme is a guide for the picks this week. And away we go.

Competition:
1.) Kentucky -14.5 vs Vandy: A win gets the Cats bowl eligible which should provide ample motivation against a Commodores team that appears to have quit in back-to-back losses versus Arkansas and Florida.

2.) Arizona -4 vs USC: USC lost their Super Bowl a couple weeks back versus Oregon and looked listless in a second half squeaker at home vs a pretty bad Arizona State team. Me thinks USC has packed it in and there remains plenty to play for for the Cats.

3.) South Carolina +6.5 at Florida: The Gamecocks could strike a mighty blow to the Chicken Curse with a win in the swamp. The number one goal of the program since Steve Spurrier came back has been to win the East and the SEC Title. They accomplish goal 1 and set up an opportunity for goal 2 with a win in the Swamp. Meanwhile, the Gators can still win the SEC and the east with a win, but you have to believe this game means more to South Carolina. The Cocks will play theor best game this Saturday and that should be good enough to get inside this number.

4.) UGA +8 at Auburn: With all the choas surrending the Tigers and Newton, it's silly to not take a shot getting over a TD with a desperate Georgia team that is playing pretty well heading into the South's oldest rivalry.

5.) ULM +33.5 at LSU: Don't laugh, ULM is coming off an upset over Troy, the Sun Belt's best team. The Tigers meanwhile have a huge letdown spot here coming off the win over Bama and will likely sleep walk to a 34-10 type of victory that provides for a pretty low stress cover.

6.) Cincy +5 at WVU: First of all I'd never bet actual money on or against this team this year but given that I'm forced to make a selection, here we go. Betting 101 folks. The line opened at WVU -6.5 and over 73% of bets placed have been on WVU. That should move the line to -7, -7.5 or even -8 but the line has gone down a full 2 points in some places to -4.5. That signals sharp money and lots of it out of a small percentage of plays going towards the Bearcats. Reverse Line movement always signals the underdog. It signaled doom at Marshall, vs Cuse, and to a lesser extent at Uconn. I won't ignore it this time.

Hard Leans:
1.) Northwestern +11 vs Iowa: Iowa has Ohio State on deck and NW can slip up on you and score in bunches.

2.) Purdue +13 vs Michigan: Rich is an unfathomable 3-18 ATS in Big Ten play. As putrid as Purdue is, I can't ignore that trend.

3.) Oklahoma -14.5 vs Texas Tech: Much like Cal, OU is a much different team at home than away. Save for 2 years ago they almost always shut down the Red Raider passing attack as well.

Betting with the Angry Old Man, Week Eleven

Syracuse -2.5
Oregon -19.5
Utah -5
Virginia Tech -3.5
ROAD DOGG: Mississippi St +13
HOMER: West Virginia -5

- Grey Bush

Picking in my underwear!

WVU -6:  God damn I hate being a homer, but it also feels good to be a gangster.  Go Eers

Iowa St -2.5:  looks like another sucker bet, but im feeling the cyclones.

Cuse -3:  Go Oranges.  Fuck snookie and fuck Rutgers.

UGA +8:  They have been playing much better and ive been betting against AU all year.

Utah -5.5:  I could be wrong, but TCU was just that good.  Utah is not bad, although not as good as Grey Bush thought.  Notre Dame is not good, and the utah offense will bounce back.  Too big of a game for a Ute hangover.

Mississippi St +13:  Im believing Mullen

The Email

Dear EFAs,

As much as I couldn’t bear to watch the Mountaineers during the Uconn debacle, I must say that I am ready to turn the page and see if we figured anything out over the past two weeks.  It is always tough to deal with a bye week as fan; I mean what do you do?  Whittle?  Watch John Denver music videos?  Stand around with the Strickland Propane crew?  Actually those last two sound pretty cool, but the point is even after a loss, two weeks is a long time to sit idle.  Obviously, playing another game puts us at risk of losing another game, but if you can’t take the pain, then you have no business watching football.  It will be a bit of a homecoming for ole Butch Jones, who coached under he who shall not be named, although not nearly as hyped as either fan base would hope.

I was a bit surprised to see us come out as a 6 point favorite in the lines, but I guess it makes sense.  At the end of the day we are 5-3 to their 3-5 and nothing would suggest that they are actually better than us this year.  Their pass defense is deplorable, but go figure we will probably tailor our gameplan around fullback dives this week.  Regardless, I think we will pull it out this week, as I usually do, but I’ll put something on the line; if we lose, the first round of Irish Trash Cans at Mutts Sunnyside is on me Saturday night!

There are not very many “marquee” games on the tube again this week; however there are quite a few games that could be very competitive.  This is probably the Ole Ball Coaches best opportunity to beat his alma mater since his first year with the Gamecocks, even though they have been struggling of late.  It doesn’t help when your QB, Stephen Garcia, makes decisions that would Jerry Garcia scratching his head.  Speaking of former Florida coaches, Dan Mullen looks to take his surprising 7-2 team in to Tuscaloosa and uproot the preseason National Title favorite, Alabama.  Perhaps, the notoriously restless descendents of Bear Bryant will become so construed in misery following their third loss that they will run their Fairmont native coach out of town, opening the door for him to return home to WVU!  The most interesting caveat to The Email’s ridiculous scenario of the week would be that he would get to face his former employer, LSU, in Morgantown next year.  Of course when all the Bayou faithful start running around High Street screaming about how he is satanic heretic, we will have to kindly remind them that he is in fact the Mothman.


The four remaining undefeated teams all compete against teams this weekend that they should beat; matter of fact they are combined 89 point favorites.  Each of these have a chance to be interesting games however.  The least likely to be competitive is TCU vs San Diego State.  Most years this wouldn’t even blip on the radar as  TCU has proven their dominance and SDST isn’t even the most famous college football entity in its own city, although they are the only Division one team.  I would argue the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl takes the nod there.  Alas the Aztecs are in a renaissance coming into the game at 7-2 and should be given their dues.  In the Pac-10, Oregon faces the Fighting Tedfords in Berkeley, where more attention is placed on hippies living in trees than on the football field.  Cal is one of the most erratic teams in the country, but in their worst outing at home this year, they won by 28 points.  Auburn faces Georgia, in the only game that has a line under 10, and while they too should be Richt’s Bulldogs, UGA has played much better as the season has progressed and could be a letdown game for Cameron “I Hate Figs” Newton and crew.  Wait a second, don’t those colors look eerily close to Mississippi State Bulldog colors?

Finally the most interesting game, although not likely to end up in an upset, is Boise State heading north to Moscow for presumably the last time in the near future.  If people think that WVU should have to play Marshall due to our instate “rivalry”, then certainly Idaho and Boise State should have to play in the Mr. Potato Head bowl every year (I should have taken some Mister Bees chips when I went out there for sponsorship).  If you have ever driving through Idaho, you would know that there is absolutely nothing outside of these two schools and unlike a series of the Coal Bowl ilk, this matchup is relatively even.  Even though Boise has been dominant of late, they only have a slight lead in the overall series at 21-17-1.  What sparks a light over this game though, is the comments of Boise president, Bob Kustra.  Reacting to a letter from a Vandal fan, Kustra publicly stated;

 “This is a great example of why my wife and I no longer travel to Moscow games,” Kustra said. “It’s a culture that is nasty, inebriated and civilly doesn’t give our fans the respect that any fan should expect when visiting an away team.”

Holy smokes Batman.  This gives Idaho fans more fire in there belly than the vicious outcry of Boise Potato versus The Flying Potato!  What is really amusing is that Kustra goes on to say;

 “I’ve seen rivalries all over America, Oklahoma-Oklahoma State, Texas-Texas A&M, Kansas-Kansas State, but you can go inside those rivalries and you’ll find all kinds of slams and digs and whatever, but I’ve never seen the nastiness aimed at the quality of our academic program that I find here in Idaho from the University of Idaho Vandals.”  

Really, have you?  Maybe you should attend a game outside of the plains where the only use for potatoes at a tailgate is in form of Vodka.  Hecks the Vandals don’t even hold a candle to athletic directors or coaches in the SEC.  I mean can you imagine if the chancellor of Pitt came out and said that about WVU?  The outrage would make the Mark May incident look petty tame and we would probably hurl empty kegs at their team bus to show them how inebriated and uncivil we can be.  I’ve rooted for Boise all year, because I think they deserve their chance, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Rob Akey and Vandals (cousins of Martha and the Vandellas) stomp the yard in the Kibbie Dome.  Here are my final words of wisdom for the Vandals, Boil-em and Mash-em boys!


Random Musings


Most people follow the AP rankings and the BCS hoopla, me?  I follow Howard Schnellenberger’s weekly rankings, because where you find age and suspenders, you usually find wisdom.  His analysis in this week's #15 ranking, of Sometimes you just have to drop back and Punt, is spot on and reminds me of dodging Avatars at last week’s Orlando convention.

How ridiculous was Michigan’s triple OT win?  The old adage of defense wins championships may be dimming in recent years in light of prolific offenses that have been all the craze, but this game looked like prominent boosters on both sides had bet on the Over . . . although they surpassed that in the first half.

How about the amazing finale that is shaping up between Denny Hamlin, Jimmy Johnson, Cale Yarborough, and Kevin . . . oh oops, wrong blog, my bad.

The old man in Happy Valley finally hit 400 wins against Northwestern this weekend.  Lets all root the Nittany Lions on in Columbus this weekend to smash the Buckeyes.  It has been far too long since the Buckeyes were neglected by all BCS bowls and with the strength of the Pac 10, it certainly is possible that the Big 10 only gets one representative, but probably need those schmucks to lose.  If Joe Pa can’t get it done, I hope he relieves himself at midfield or on that idiot who dots the “I”.  I mean what the hell is the big deal, I learned to dot my I’s and cross my T’s in elementary school, not college.  That cursive was tricky stuff for me though.


Betting on The Blog


Well I shit the bed last week.  I went 1-4 while losing all the trendy picks that you should obviously stay away from.  By doing so, I reopened the standings to the rest of the mongoloids in the competition.   The next couple weeks will be very tight, but I am confident that Al will come out on top.  Personally I like Utah to rebound in a holy war and upset Touchdown Jesus in South Bend.

Well thats all folks, enjoy the weekend.

Sincerely and Scintillating, 

Al

Betting with the Angry Old Man, Week Ten

After everyone else's struggles last week, coming out 2-3-1 has got the ol' Grey Bush fired up to make a late season push for the title. I'm going to try a new concept this week: making picks that don't suck. So without further adieu...

(as always, picks in bold; home teams in CAPS)

OREGON -35 v. Washington
- Washington's offense this season is averaging just under 22 PPG. This includes a 41-point September outburst against a Syracuse team that is dramatically different these days, and a 35-point showing in 2 OTs for their second-highest total of the season. They've been pretty awful of late, with a combined 14 points against Arizona and Stanford the last two weekends. All things considered, I'd say they would have to hold the Ducks under 50 to cover this spread. In Autzen Stadium, I don't think that's going to happen.

UTAH +4.5 v. Texas Christian
- After all the talking I've done this season about how I think the Utes are the best non-AQ team in the country (including picking this very upset a few weeks ago), it would be the bitch-move of the decade for me to stay away from this game. A 4.5 point spread in a coin toss like this usually dictates a stay-away game from me, but I'm not necessarily picking against the line here, as much as I'm taking Utah straight-up (but if the Horny Frogs win by a FG, I'll gladly accept those points)

Virginia -1 @ DUKE
- Am I missing something here? Isn't UVA not half-bad? I don't care if Duke beat Navy or an entire team of Navy SEALS last weekend, they stink.

Air Force -6.5 @ ARMY
- This almost seems too easy...

ROAD DOGG OF THE WEEK:
Arizona +9.5 @ Stanford
- Many Road Dogg candidates this week (including Hawai'i, Maryland, and Northwestern), but this Arizona team has has treated me pretty well this season. Save for the the collective steamer laid at home against Oregon State (and nearly getting Rick-Rolled last week in earning the 7-point push), this team has put together a pretty impressive resume of work on their way to a Top-15 ranking. Ultimately, I think this is a one-possession game that could come down to a final drive.

THE HOMER CALL:
Bye Week +6.5 @ WEST VIRGINIA
- After being subjected to the last two weekends of Stew-Ball, I just don't trust the Mountaineers against anyone.

- Grey Bush

The flying potato week 10 picks

Penn st -5.5 vs Northwestern
Arkansas +4.5 @ USC
Oklahoma -3 @ Texas A&M
Air Force -6.5 @ Army
Navy +2.5 @ ECU

Shoeless picks

Did not analyze much this week as I was on the road, but here we go:

Air Force -6.5 - Army has performed admirably this year, but simply think AF is a much better team.

Oregon st  -4.5 - I love beavers

Texas -3.5 - This team is clearly not very good and I didn't expect them to beat the Bears, but at some point I feel they will answer the rally cry, and why not against K-State

Arizona +9.5 - very good matchup, too many points in my opinion

Mizzou-4 - Wow this looks like a trap game, but I think mizzou rallies after their embarrassment in Lincoln.  They are still pretty good.

Pigskin Prognosticator Week 10 picks

Competition Record: 23-28-2
Hard Leans: 18-14
WVU: 3-4-1

Week 1: Competition Plays 1-4-1, Hard Leans 1-2
Week 2: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 2-3
Week 3: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 3-0
Week 4: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 1-1
Week 5: Competition Plays 2-3, Hard Leans 2-2
Week 6: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 2-1
Week 7: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 0-3
Week 8: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 3-2
Week 9 : Competition Plays 2-3-1, Hard Leans 4-0


Fitting that my hard leans sweep and my competition plays continue to struggle. Doing decent in fball but just can't pick the right ones for this blog. Oh well, that's the kind of year it's been.

Competition Plays
1.) Bama -6.5 at LSU
2.) Air Force -7 at Army
3.) Oregon State -4.5 at UCLA
4.) Nevada -10.5 at Idaho
5.) Rutgers +10 at USF

Hard Leans
1.) Florida -14 at Vandy
2.) Syracuse -6 vs Louisville
3.) Illinois +3 at Michigan
4.) UNC +10.5 at FSU
5.) Maryland +7.5 at Miami.