Week 1 Results:
2.2 units to win 2:
Miss St -27--WINNER
Missouri -17--LOSER
USF +10.5--WINNER
LSU +2--WINNER
WVU -20.5--NO ACTION
Texas A&M -15.5--WINNER
Parlay of these 6 above: .5 untis to win 20 units --LOSER
3 sweetheart teases at 2 units to win 2 units apiece (Even odds bets in which you move 3 lines in your favor 10 points but they all must hit to win.
Number 1 : Miss St -17, Mizzou -7, USF +20.5--WINNER
Number 2 : LSU +12, WVU -10.5, Texas A&M -5.5--NO ACTION
Number 3 : Texas -12.5, Southern Cal -11, Michigan -3.5--NO ACTION
Late Adds:
2.2 to win 2
Wake +7--PUSH
Fresno +9.5--LOSER
1.1 to win 1
Murray +30--WINNER
Miami +4--LOSER
WVU/Marshall ov 52.5--NO ACTION
2 unit plays: 4-2-1
1 unit plays: 1-1
.25 unit parlays: 0-1
Sweetheart Teasers: 1-0
+4.8 units in week 1
Contest Picks 4-2
Not a bad first week by any means but it was slightly disappointing I suppose given how well it started. As you can tell, any wager, tease or otherwise, involving Michigan and WVU was ruled no action because the games did not go at least 55 minutes. That turned out to be a wash on the 2 teasers, but it cost me 3 units combined on the WVU spread and the over that was likely to hit.
I also lost on Miami, a 2 unit swing, on a ridiculous late pick 6 by the Terps that was literally the only way I could have lost that wager. Oh well, that's gambling and the lucky breaks and brutal breaks should even out over the course of the season. Regardless I'll take 12 more college football weekends of +4.8 units profit and run like a thief in the night.
As for the contest picks, clearly I was off on the UGA guess but South Carolina backers were also jobbed on the late backdoor cover by ECU. I'll take 4-2 every week.
Anyway.........on to week 2.
Contest Picks:
1.) Penn St +10: I don't have a very good feel for this game overall but I'll take a stab at a decent Nittany Lion team catching double digits at home. Both teams played a 2 quarterback rotation with mixed results last week while overwhelming Kent St and Indiana St respectively. The key here is turnovers. If Penn St can hang onto the ball and score 10 points I think they will at least push this number.
2.) Notre Dame -4.5: I'm getting this a point better in my actual wager but I still love this play. I, like most people did a double take when I saw the line, figuring how easy it would be to take the Wolverines as a dog in their first night game. Upon further review, I realize that's the only thing Michigan has going for them. I think it's human to react to what you see but I think gamblers often overreact to what they see. This line is a classic case of that. The reality is Notre Dame ran up and down the field on USF, outgaining the Bulls 502-250. The Irish's 5 turnovers, 3 of which were inside the 5 yard line, allowed the bulls to win. I don't see anything that can't be rectified with better decision making and these QBs don't have a history of poor decision making. Conversely, Michigan's defense is still very very poor. Western Michigan marched up and down the field on them in a monsoon but turnovers prevented the game from being MUCH closer. I look for Notre Dame to bounce back in a big way and spoil the first ever night game in the Big House.
3.) South Carolina -3: Who in the hell even knows here? I'm going square as hell with this play. I was all but ready to take the Dawgs again until I realized how many injuries Georgia has going into this game. I just don't see any way they are ready to play this game on Saturday. However, South Carolina doesn't exactly inspire confidence after the shit show that was their performance vs ECU. They would likely be 0-1 if not for ECU literally fumbling the game away in the second half. This is a classic stay away game but I'll take the lesser of two evils here.
4.) Auburn +6.5: I got the hook with this one in my actual wager but I like it at this number as well. In my opinion this is once again a severe overreaction to one game. Everyone watched Miss St. run up and down the field against Memphis, nevermind the fact that the Tigers are going to be one of the worst 10 teams in Division 1 this year. Auburn, on the other hand was ambushed by Utah State and was insanely lucky to pull out the win. The verdict? Mississippi State isn't as good as they looked and Auburn isn't as bad. This should tell you all you need to know. The game of the week line for this game offered up by Vegas in July had Miss St as a 1 pt favorite. Do the week 1 results really warrant a 5.5 or 6 point move in the line? I don't think so. Yes Miss St is the better team, but there is no way I lay close to a touchdown on the road in the SEC this yr involving teams not named Ole Miss, Kentucky or Vanderbilt.
5.) Army +9.5: I really came close to playing FIU here (I'll explain below) but I could not pass up on this wonderful situational spot for the Black Knights of the Hudson. Army is set for their home opener after being soundly beaten by what I think will end up being a very good Northern Illinois team (They may beat Kansas straight up this week) in their season opener. I think Army is making progress and San Diego State, despite their beating of Cal Poly, will not be the same squad without Brady Hoke as head coach. Add in the fact that SDSU will travel 3k miles to play a Noon game on the East Coast and this play is a no brainer.
6.) WVU -41: Why not?
Actual week 2 wagers (my lines may be slightly better or worse than the ones we are locked into as I shop for the best one available and we lock our lines in early in the week):
2.2 units to win 2
1.) FIU +4.5: Screw the points, the Golden Panthers won't need them. Anyone that watched the Louisville/Murray State game watched one hell of a pitiful football game. I don't think the Cards are as bad as they looked last week but this game is a scenario in which the FIU strengths match up perfectly with the Louisville weaknesses. Ty Helton is a dynamic WR and the Louisville secondary is frighteningly young. They acquitted themselves quite well against an absolutely pathetic Racer passing attack (How the hell is that QB up for the IAA Heisman?) but FIU is a different animal. The Golden Panthers are also confident after a bowl win last year and a route of North Texas last week. On offense Louisville is a mess as well. They committed 5 turnovers last week, Will Steain has a sprained ankle and Teddy Bridgewater looked like an absolute mess in his one series of action last week. I hope Louisville wins by a FG but I think you are looking at the Big East's first embarrassing loss this season.
2.) Arizona State -7: Mizzou looked pretty damn pathetic in being the only one of my initial 6 bets to lose last week. New QB Ryan Franklin is clearly a work in progress and that was on display for all to see in a 17-6 win over Miami Oh. Not only was he off target passing, he also set up Miami's only score witth an INT. Now he'll head to the desert where expectations are high for a Sun Devil team that has a very solid defense.
3.) Army +9.5: See above
4.) FAU +32.5: The Owls covered 23.5 in Detroit last year against a much better MSU team. While I'm somewhat concerned that FAU has a history of laying down against BCS level teams, I just don't think the Spartans have enough playmakers to cover spreads like these. They sleepwalked through a 28-6 win over Youngstown State as a 35 point favorite last week. I look for a similar effort. If the Owls can find the end zone once, that should be enough.
5.) Auburn +7: See above
6.) Notre Dame -3.5: See above
Parlay of these 6 above: .5 untis to win 20 units
3 sweetheart teases at 2 units to win 2 units apiece (Even odds bets in which you move 3 lines in your favor 10 points but they all must hit to win.)
Number 1 : FIU +14.5, AZ St +3, Army +19.5
Number 2 : FAU +42.5, Auburn +17, Notre Dame +6.5
Number 3 : Ball St +30, BYU +17, ECU +29.5
That will be all for week 2. Luckily I won't be home on Saturday so I won't place any stupid added bets this week. Let's hope everyone plays all 4 quarters this weekend. Here's to another profitable week and remember a dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned.
