Week 2 Results:
2.2 units to win 2:
FIU +4.5--WINNER
Arizona State -7--PUSH
Army +9.5--WINNER
FAU +32.5--LOSER
Auburn +7--WINNER
Notre Dame -3.5--LOSER
Parlay of these 6 above: .5 units to win 20 units--LOSER
3 sweetheart teases at 2 units to win 2 units apiece (Even odds bets in which you move 3 lines in your favor 10 points but they all must hit to win.)
Number 1 : FIU +14.5, AZ St +3, Army +19.5--WINNER
Number 2 : FAU +42.5, Auburn +17, Notre Dame +6.5--LOSER
Number 3 : Ball St +30, BYU +17, ECU +29.5--LOSER on Ball State Push
Weekly Recap:
2 unit plays: 3-2-1
.5 unit parlay: 0-1
2 unit sweetheart teasers: 1-2
-1.1 units week 2
Season Recap:
2 unit plays: 7-4-2
1 unit plays: 1-1
.5 unit parlays: 0-2
2 unit sweetheart teasers: 2-2
+3.7 units on the season
Contest Picks: 3-2-1 making me 7-4-1 so far.
Last week could have been a lot better. Clearly FAU was just a horrible play. However, Arizona State led by 14 receiving a punt in the 4th quarter and they get forced into OT where they push. I don't even want to talk about Notre Dame.. They invent ways to lose. South Florida returning a Ball State fumble on the opening kickoff to push a tease and make it a loser was also a gem. I feel like I should have been 5-1 in 2 unit plays, 2-1 in teasers and 4-1-1 in the contest picks but that's the way it goes. I don't feel like I've gotten much luck yet and I'm still up $ so I guess that's a good sign.
On to week 3
Contest Picks:
1.) LSU -3: This is a bit of a square play and I feel like Vegas is begging for LSU money. I might be stepping into a trap but I just don't see it. I believe Oregon's spread is better than MSU's and I just don't think the Bulldogs are going to be able run like they want to. This will be a typical LSU game. The Tigers will play great defense, win the field position and make timely big plays. I see the Tigers winning by 7-10. The field advantage is not a huge concern here either. I would have played this game up to -6
2.) FSU +3: No real feel here whatsoever. This is a classic stay away and just watch game if you ask me. I'm not sold that FSU is for real yet but I do know that Doak Campbell at night is a zoo. The tipping point for me here is that Oklahoma has been a very mediocre 15-10 on the road the last 4 years. I'll take my chances with the points.
3.) ND -4.5: Sell high and buy low. Clearly nobody wants the Irish right now. What can I say? I'm a glutton for torture. Notre Dame's collapse last week was one for the ages. However we know that the Irish can go up and down the field on good teams. They just can't hang on to the ball. They rank dead last in turnover margin. Turnovers are a stat I think you can expect to regress to the mean. If the Irish hang on to the ball they win going away here. We know very little about MSU after wins over Youngstown and FAU, while we know ND can score. History is not on my side but I like the Domers to finally bounce back here.
4.) Miami -2: Miami at home, with the starters back, is flat out better than this Ohio State team that nearly lost at home to Toledo and played uninspired versus a truly dreadful Akron team. That is assuming Jacory Harris doesnt throw more than 2 interceptions. I'm hoping Al Golden can calm him down and make him less turnover prone. If the Hurricanes manage to be only -1 in turnovers or better, they cover this number.
5.) Iowa -3: Awful spot for Pitt. Perhaps if Iowa had throttled ISU they could have snuck in under the radar and posed a bigger threat to the Hawkeyes. Instead, they will meet a pissed off Iowa team looking to get well. They will do so while still trying to figure out a new offense and apparently trying to jam a square peg into a round hole at the quarterback position.
6.) WVU +1: This line was WVU -4.5 in the off season and now after three combined games it has moved 5.5 points making us a dog. I think it's a gross overreaction to the Terrapins' beating of an undermanned Miami team down 6 defensive starters. The public was wowed by the offensive performance against Miami (nevermind that they got two defensive TDs) and they are overvaluing Maryland. I look for the Mountaineers to leave Byrd Stadium 3-0 with the showdown for LSU and the Gameday crew in their sights.
7.) Washington State +6: In two games (all be it against 2 horrid opponents) it appears Paul Wulf has turned the corner with Wazzu at least in terms of scoring output. San Diego St will not be as solid without Brady Hoke at the helm and after almost losing at Army last week I see this as a line that should have been -1 or -2 not -6.
Actual week 3 wagers (my lines may be slightly better or worse than the ones we are locked into as I shop for the best one available and we lock our lines in early in the week):
2.2 units to win 2
1.) LSU -3.5: See above
2.) Iowa -3: See above
3.) WVU +1: See above
4.) ND -4.5: See above
5.) Miami -2.5: See above
6.) Wash St +6: See above
Parlay of these 6 above: .5 untis to win 20 units
2.2 to win 2
Cincy -34.5: This was too many points to put in the contest or parlay picks but I like it nonetheless. The Bearcats have shown they are not afraid to run up the score in beating Austin Peay 72-0. Akron is literally one of the worst 5 teams in the country. Cincy will get well here.
3 sweetheart teases at 2 units to win 2 units apiece (Even odds bets in which you move 3 lines in your favor 10 points but they all must hit to win.)
Number 1 : LSU +6.5, Iowa +7, WVU +11
Number 2 : ND +5.5, Miami +7.5, Washington State +16
Number 3 : Tennessee +19.5, Cuse +26.5, Army +17
That's it for week 3. I'll be on the road in College Park so luckily no drunken adds this week. Good luck and remember, a dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned.
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