Shoeless Picks of the week

I think I'll take

Oregon -1
UGA +3.5
USF +10
ECU +20.5
WVU -20.5
Pat Hill +9.5

Week 1 Prognostications

After an admittedly rough go last year in the picks, I'm back at it for another year. Let me first say for the record that I don't care for the way this is set up. Perhaps choosing only one game that I would actually put my hard earned (okay I work for the state, make that easily earned) cash on is no way to gamble. It's certainly no way to separate one gambler from another with regard to who is best at spotting weak lines and exploiting them to grind out a profit (or in the case of last year hemorrhaging money for me) over the course of the season. By locking in these marquee games as must plays, we will be wagering on very heavily bet games containing little or no value.

Ok I'm off my soap box. Given the current setup, I will make my contest picks each week and then down below, list my actual wagers placed for the weekend. I know it's likely that nobody cares how I do, but I enjoy having a forum to use to share my picks and analysis so there you have it. In my mind our contest can be a fun exercise in luck while my serious wagering can be displayed also.

Without further ado:

Contest picks:

1.) LSU +1: From a focus standpoint having your starting QB suspended due to a bar fight is never good, but from an impact on the game perspective I believe Jordan Jefferson's absence will have minimal effects. Jarrett Lee has played plenty of football for the Bayou Bengals and this game will be decided along the line of scrimmage anyway. LSU is scary good and scary deep on both the offensive and defensive lines. I expect the Tigers to gradually wear down the smaller, quicker Ducks as the game goes on and use a power run game with some play action pass along with a stingy defense to pull out a close one.

2.) UGA +3.5: This is a classic example of what I meant in my rant. I have looked at this game from several angles and there is absolutely no reason to bet this game. Anyone that tells you they know what's going to happen here is lying. Way too many unknowns on both sides. The only thing we do know is both QBs are very good. Georgia scheduled this game to get back in the national conversation and I at least would expect them to be very focused in what is a huge year for Mark Richt. I'll take the Dawgs close to home simply because I am a perennial non-believer in Boise.

3.)USF +10: I simply think this line is 3 pts too high. Then again ND is always a public darling so we shouldn't be overly surprised. Sure the Irish closed with 4 wins last year including a dominant showing against a coachless Miami team in the Sun Bowl but I think it's probably another year or so until Brian Kelley gets the ideal players for his system. Also consider that USF has won early in the season at Auburn and Florida State. Consider that Skip's ECU team beat WVU and VT in back to back weeks 3 years ago. Put it together and I don't think USF will be intimidated. If they can play their usual solid D and put the walking turnover BJ Daniels in low risk positions to succeed, the Bulls will be in this game until the end.

4.) Cocky -20.5: I have very little feel for this game but if Spurrier's boys are as good as preseason pollsters seem to think they are, they should probably cover this number. Marcus Lattimore is absolutely awesome. That is all.

5.) WVU -20.5: If Marshall's secondary plays as poorly as they did last year, we score 50 in this game. My concern coming into this year is the middle of the defense. It is going to be hard to replace Neild and I think good power running teams will exploit us up the middle. Fortunately, Marshall doesn't fit that criteria. I do expect the Cato kid at QB to be impressive at times for the Herd. He supposedly throws a very catchable ball, and is very mobile and elusive. However, starting a 180 pound true freshman for the first time in Morgantown with DE ends like Julian Miller and Bruce Irvin bearing down on him is not a recipe for success. I look for at least a 42-14 type of score here but I am hoping for a merciless beating. 77-0 would suffice.

6.) Mississippi State -27.5: The Bulldogs beat Memphis 49-7 last year with their backup QB. Memphis is literally one of the worst teams in the country and Miss St should be much improved this year under Dan Mullen. The game is on the road but let's be honest, there will be more maroon clad fans ringing cowbells than Tiger fans in the Liberty Bowl.

Actual week one wagers (my lines may be slightly better than the ones we are locked into as I shop for the best one available):

2.2 units to win 2:

Miss St -27: see above
Missouri -17: beat Miami U 51-13 last yr. Line is simply too short
USF +10.5: see above
LSU +2: see above
WVU -20.5: see above
Texas A&M -15.5: If Mike Sherman's team is really going to be an elite squad they'll win decisively against a decent SMU team.

Parlay of these 6 above: .5 untis to win 20 units

3 sweetheart teases at 2 units to win 2 units apiece (Even odds bets in which you move 3 lines in your favor 10 points but they all must hit to win.

Number 1 : Miss St -17, Mizzou -7, USF +20.5
Number 2 : LSU +12, WVU -10.5, Texas A&M -5.5
Number 3 : Texas -12.5, Southern Cal -11, Michigan -3.5

Late additions:

2.2 units to win 2
Wake +7: I was going to lay off this game but the more I looked into it I think the Demon Deacons warrant a play. This is one of Al Grohs most experienced teams since the 2006 Orange Bowl squad. This program reminds me a bit of WVU under Nehlen in that every 5 or 6 years they have a chance to be very very good. It's that time again in Winston Salem. I also expect a slight backslide from Syracuse. They were fortunate to go virtually injury free last year and were also 4-0 in games decided by 7 points or less. That good fortune isn't likely to continue.

1.1 units to win 1
WVU/Marshall ov 52.5: I don't normally bet many football totals but this one looks good. WVU could cover this by themselves and I expect Marshall to score a couple TDs

Murray St +30: Ok If your calling this an action wager you would be correct. I know I'll be sitting in front of the TV, ESPNU on cold beer in hand at 6 p.m. on Thursday. However I do have a basis for this play other than being a degenerate gambler. The Racers averaged 34 pts a game last year in their pass heavy offense. I expect the Cards to be slightly worse this year and their secondary starts the year incredibly thin.

That's plenty of action for week 1, good luck to all and remember, a dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned.

2011 Haters Guide to Top 25

Great stuff as always.

 

http://deadspin.com/5832234/the-2011-haters-guide-to-the-top-25

College Football - Week One . . . We're Back!

Dear EFAs,

 

Welcome to the sixth year of The Email.  I have endured countless sleepless nights waiting to unleash my verbose football mutterings upon you all once again.  Likewise, I am sure many of you have been stocking up on barbiturates knowing that you will be sucked into reading this trash much like how you can't turn off episode of Hoarders which you know is inevitably dumbing down everyone in the room, including your child's hamster.

Now, before we go any further, I know we have some newbies on here, so we must state The Email rules.  These rules are stated once a year and are meant to protect the innocent readers of this email.  Some rules have remained the same, but much like when you call your local utility provider, some of the options have changed, so please read.  Without Further ado:

1.    The email is based upon my opinion and thus should be regarded with the utmost respect.

2.      Ohio State, the buckeye nut, and the greater state of Ohio all suck.  Each will be properly treated in the most inappropriate manner I can think of.

3.      The TV schedule is the initial reason behind this email, much like moonshine to NASCAR, so I take it seriously.  The Big Ten network will not be covered in the television schedule.  I hate ND, but I include NBC, because I like to watch them lose.  I do not currently receive the Longhorn Network, so I'm not including now.  Times are in EST and listings are based on where I live.  Don't like that?  Make your own damn schedule.

4.     I have a general distaste for Notre Dame.  Not for their history or success, but due to the irrational love fest they receive as well as the fact that they are given unfair advantages in BCS play.  A lot of people hate the Yankees and the Cowboys, but they have at least been relevant in the last twenty years and play under the same rules as my beloved, yet putrid Bills and Blue Jays.

5.       While reading this email you should face towards Morgantown, close and reopen the monitor to your laptop five times, while muttering the lyrics to Country Roads.  Ohm chants are optional.  If viewing via a desktop monitor, turning off and on the screen five times is an acceptable resolution to not being able to shut the screen.

6.       To the newcomers or to some of the readers who are starting to lose their memory, you may be wondering at this point how did I get on this email list?  Why am I still reading?  What is the meaning of life?  Did I just soil myself?  Well to answer your questions, 1 - you were either referred, you asked to be on, or The Email selected you. 2 -  I cannot help you with your problems. 3 – the meaning of life is 42.  4 – I suggest checking here.

7.       Every time you see a grammatical error or find some other issue with my writing, please remember that I am probably drinking, and if you really care about pointing these out, maybe you should be as well. 

8.       Remember, Reply Alls currently forwards your message to 118 people, including my momma (but she's cool, and probably sipping a Blue Moon about now, obviously without an orange).  Type wisely you crass keyboard ninjas.

9.       Competitive banter is appreciated.  Your beer spilling, livid tirades are not considered banter, but will likely cause some tailgate humor.  

 10.   Times or channels are subject to change on the schedule.  I attempt to publish this email by every Wednesday night or Thursday at the latest.  Times should be solidified by Monday, but the ESPN family of networks has been known to switch around channels of their games pretty late in the week.

11.  Any unauthorized reproduction or selling of this email is a violation of the Bro Code and will be prosecuted.

12.   It is permissible to hate the Hokies, but remember these poor things have been castrated; give them a beer if you see one.

13.   A lot of people ask what an EFA is.  Mr. Jay Stewart coined the term and I liked it, so it stuck.  Email Followers of Al.

14.   I cannot guarantee that all internet links are appropriate to watch at work or in front of your children.  I will try to stray from anything that will give you a virus, but I cannot guarantee that you perform the act in the video that you will not get hurt or receive a virus.  This link for example is one of my favorites and is relatively harmless, however; the humor may have to be explained to your young daughter if she is watching.

15.   I would be remised if I did not at least give you the opportunity to opt out this email, especially with the consumer protection laws today.  Please opt out here if need be and take a moment to provide feedback as to why you hate me.

16.   I refuse to buy into the NCAA's Bowl Subdivision crap.  It is still 1-A and 1-AA in my world and I do not find that politically incorrect.  I will not address the Big Ten's new division names either.  They are ridiculous.  I'll consider Nebraska part of the West division and Penn State in the East.

17.   Mutts Sunnyside is the official bar of this email.

18.  I'd like to figure out a way to Ice people via the email.  Please forward any ideas back to me, but know that you cannot Ice me via your suggestions, because I read my email while wearing this, which serves as a block.

19.   Check the blog for more extensive content.  Many witticisms and betting ideas passed along there.

Offseason Recap

I was tempted many a time this summer to fire up a summary recap with all the drama that was occurring across the nation, but held back.  Much like a bear, I need my off months for hibernation (I've often been likened to a polar bear btw).  However; this means that there is much to talk about over the next few weeks, just to catch up from the end of bowl season to now, and where to begin?  Obviously we were all captivated by Stew-Gate in June, but then we have Tressel mania, Willie Lyles, continued Cam Newton allegations, the implosion at Chapel Hill of the Butch Davis regime, Big 12 bickering, the Fiesta Bowl scandal, Georgia Tech/LSU violations and on and on . . . which does not even bring us to the big stories coming into the new year with all the conference realignments.  So, for those who may have been living under a rock this past year lets do a recap

-          Jim Tressel is fired at Ohio State and sentenced to death by ingestion of Buckeye nuts.  The Sweater Vest has finally exposed as the man who hid behind a clean Christian façade who truly was a behind the scenes, unethical cheat.

-          Update:  I still hate Ohio State and hope the finish in the back of their lame midwesternly named division.

-          Speaking of sweater vests, Bill Stewart has ended his career at WVU at 28-12.  Hologorson now has full reins.

-          Butch Davis has been fired at UNC.  The AD is gone too.

-          Oregon is caught up in messy recruiting scandal which involves the solicitation of man, Willie Lyles, who supposedly convinced recruits to go to Oregon.  LSU also used their services

-          Terrelle Pryor has been banned from Ohio State

-          Nebraska is in the Big Ten

-          Utah and Colorado are in the Pac 12.

-          The last two now mean that the Big Ten (12 teams) and the new Pac 12 will now have championship games, at the expense of . . .

-          The Big 12 is now a big 10, however they will remain the Big 12 as the Big 10, who has 12 teams, will remain the Big 10.

-          The Longhorns have gone the way of the Yankees (YES) and developed their own television network, which is hosted by ESPN.  Conflict of interest anyone?  More on this next week.

-          The Pirate is still out of a job, which is unfortunate, but at least we've gotten to listen to him the media outlets quite a bit.  He also coauthored a biography with ESPN's Bruce Feldman (an Email fav).  ESPN then promptly suspended one of their only true journalists, because they were afraid they wouldn't be able to continue taking it up the rear from former Pony Express member, Craig James.

-          I still hate Ohio State, and Pitt, Notre Dame, and Mayonnaise.  All of the above are disgusting.  Call me anti-establishment.

Hurricane Nevin

I had all of that written to fully recap the offseason and Miami goes and blow the whole thing up (not to mention the LSU mess).  Reading through all this crap is amazing; strippers, cash, abortions, yachts . . . where is Don Johnson (not to be confused with his estranged cousin Dave Johnson)?  Instead of making fun of Donna Shalala, which you can find plenty of online, I thought it might be fun to explore how this scandal would unfold if it occurred in Mountaineer country . . .

Starting approximately around 2003, current coach Rich Rodriguez was drumming up support to get his alma mater back on the national stage recruiting wise.  His side kick Tony Gibson wasn't getting the job done, so Rich turned to the relatively unknown coal baron, Cecil Gwaltney, to "spice up" the Morgantown scene for incoming recruits to see how the Monongalia night live compared to SEC and Big 11 country.  Cecil was charged with throwing lavish parties and generally doing whatever he could to serve the football players desires, while completely acting independently of WVU athletics.  As an avid supporter and possessor of an almost endless cash flow resulting from the sale of his coal mines to the Russians, CG had no qualms.  The following is from a testimony of the recently arrested Cecil Gwaltney:

Wild Parties: 

-          Numerous accounts of posh keg parties on the roof of the Marris Country store was all the rage when Cecil first started.  Football recruits were given free keg beer and Bartons gin.  The Bulger sisters were known to be frequent hosts.

-          Fullback Owen Schmitt once infamously ate a coaster in ten seconds at Mario's Fishbowl.  What was never said about this, was that he was also taking bumps of cocaine that came courtesy of CG.  That explains this . . .

-          Further impermissible benefits were setup at the local under 21 establishments for the incoming freshman.  Upon the recognition of a player, the players would be given special deals not offered to other students at a 50% discount, typically resulting in half penny pitchers. 

-          One night that got out of hand, occurred at this email's official bar, Mutts Sunnyside.  The rager was so intense, that they racked up a bill of over $25, fully funded by CG over course.  Anyone who has partied all night in that establishment knows how difficult that tab is.

-          Ever wonder why you found football players prowling around Morgantown in the summer?  First reason; Keglers sports bar set the sham of Wednesday's Ladies night featuring free wings . . . guess where the players were bused to after terrorizing the quiet summer town?  Second reason; yacht parties on Cheat Lake.  Here is a fishy picture of one former lineman after a long day of marauding the lake.  Afterward a long day out with the women, you guessed it, they all ended up at the Whippoorwill Bar n Grill, where once again it was a place where "Friends don't keep tabs."

-          The most unspeakable party was held Cecil's newly acquired apartment complex, Mountaineer Court, in 2005.  The party occurred the night after the Virginia Tech game in which Marcus Vick illustrated to fans how he felt about the Appalachian culture.  Lets just say that the competition didn't end there, as Ron Mexico showed up with his "dawgs" and a few Gs to Steve Slaton's breakout celebration.

The women:

-          Every year WVU hosts the PRT Cram.  From the alumni website, "A PRT car, which holds 16 people comfortably, is stretched to the limit when students from campus organizations squeeze "cram" into one of the cars. The record was set in 2000 when 97 students crammed into the PRT car."  CG thought it would be amusing to have a PRT cram with select football players and the Women's soccer team, late at night, with no one else around.  Wild parties would ensue.

-          We are not going to even talk about the BOT parties on the deck at Bent Willey's.

The Bounties:

-          Two WVU players received bounties from CG after a losing effort in the Orange Bowl.   Adam "Pacman" Jones received $2,000 for teaching Kellen Winslow how to be a Soldier and Quincy Wilson roped in a whopping $8,800 for laying the smack down on Brandon Meriweather in the play of the year.  It was also rumored that Wilson was paid an undisclosed amount for a yearlong sponsorship by Wierton Steel.  Company executives were not immediately available for comment.

-          Jahmile Addae was granted $1,500 in the following year for this bone chilling hit at Lane Stadium.  Numerous death threats were written to the back judge after the play.  Tony Caridi was so appalled that the hit was deemed a penalty; he decided to give Jahmile a cut of his Northside Automotive bankroll.

Shady Business:

-          Around the end of 2004, beginning of 2005, CG started a new ponzi scheme under the corporate identity of McCoy 6 Apartments.  Through the management of numerous substandard apartment buildings, Cecil was able to not only house the "student athletes", throw more wild parties, collect cash for further bounties and excursions, but was also able to keep his shenanigans out of sight and out of mind, as most wouldn't dare enter the slums of SunnySide.  Under the guise of providing a lucrative yet low cost invest that ultimately served low income tenants, Cecil had a cash cow that end only hurt the tenants that lived dumps and broken hearted investors left penniless.

-          The filth of Sunnyside also proved to open profitable means for the athletes.  Numerous players have been rumored to participate in black market couch deals, in which couches were stolen off of the porches of innocent students, sold on the black market behind Marris Country store, and usually ending up in street fires.  Tragic.

-          Another profitable business sprung up for star receiver Chris Henry, who was "secretly" growing marijuana in the WVU Arboretum, which at the time was under the watchful eye police chief Bob Roberts.  Henry and local rapper 6'6 240 teamed up with a local night club, Envy, to distribute the product.  The club was raided in 2008, well after the original criminals had washed their hands clean.  Conspiracy?  yes.

Academic Fraud:

-          It was a widespread practice for "Tutors" to sit in classes for the football players, while the players would be studying in the depths of the Mountainlair.  Their favorite study center was the Side Pocket Pub.

-          In 2007, 19 football players received Masters in Business Administration degrees from the college of Business and Economics.  18 of these students were redshirt sophomores at the time.

Lets all just hope the truth never comes out.

WVU Outlook

Ok onto current matters, the season outlook for WVU.  Personally, I'm tired of all the Holgorson hype and ready to see it on the damn field.  I like many others have high expectations, but am trying to temper myself from the unrealistic notions that we are going to average 78.4 points per game that you would assume we would achieve from reading the daily articles on Holg's offense.  I would be completely happy with the mid 30s, which would be a regression from his previous offenses, but certainly a step up from the Stew era.  Not to continue on a negative tract, but lets also come out of the clouds a bit on the defense.  Casteel had a tremendous squad last year and I'd fully expect with the young talent we have this year tied with Tandy/Miller/Garvin/Irvin, we should see a traditional Casteel defense that matures as the year goes on.  With that said, if you were a fly on the wall in the various bars around the state, well A you would probably be drunk, but B, you would think that Casteel was the love child of Chuck Noll and Buddy Ryan.  That is both a completely unrealistic and utterly disgusting thought.  He is a great coach, who I would put my utmost trust in, but lets not get too carried away with things.

My prognostication is that we will see incredible improvement on the offense, withstanding a Geno injury, and we will have a great defense by the end of the year, but we will have growing pains there.  The youth amongst the safeties, lack of experience of linebackers beyond Goode, and the second string defensive line should scare you to some degree.  I think we have talent in the first two categories, but there are too many questions there to assume everything will be just fine.  The great thing about last year's D-line is that you had Berry/Nield/Miller/Irivn/Taylor/Wright . . . we are essentially the same this year minus Berry and Nield.  I think we will be good, but the depth is concerning.  Alas, I think we are clearly the best team in the conference.  The BE will once again be weak this year, with one glimmer of hope; six out of eight teams return their starting quarterback which to me points to even greater parity in a league that is defined by parity.  I predict 10-2 with a loss to LSU and one in the Big East.  In descending order, these are the games I am worried about; LSU, USF, The Fightin' Mike Haywoods, Maryland, Cincy.  We can definitely beat anyone of those including LSU, but I'd plan on 2-3 losses.  Four would be a meltdown.  10-2, ya heard it here.

Week One Outlook

Key games to watch are Oregon v LSU in the house that Jerry built, obv implications for us, Boise St v Georgia, Appy St v VA Tech (god this would be awesome), and USF v Notre Dame.  Then a shit ton of D1aa matchups.  At Al's ranch, we will be kicking off the first Thursday night of football with a bbq feast including a plethora of natural light and keystone (hey, gotta transition out the nascar tailgating season).  We are then tailgating on the porch all day Saturday, grilling pork, and making the trek to Motown for Sunday's beat down of Marshall.  I seriously hope we thrash them. 

I think it is a bit cliché as an 'Eer fan to assume that we will crush the Herd by 65 points.  I'd love to see that, but we've felt that way many times in the past.  I am anxious to see how the new era unfolds and that path begins with Marshall, so I find it a bit tough to pick a number out of the air.  In attempts to gain a working knowledge of our foe, I've been reading some of the Marshall beat lately, which if anyone else here has subjected themselves to this, you will know how brutal of an endeavor that is, and I have not came away overly impressed.  Marshall has a few players, most notably Curry, and a lot of young talent that the Doc has brought in, but sending out a large group of redshirt freshman wouldn't have me excited as a Herd Fan.  I am going with 45-17.  I'd probably give them a few more points given the past couple years, but I don't put much stock in the QB battle that they have had down there.  Always remind your neighbor Marshall fan of this though.

I Sincerely hope each and every one of you has similarly epic weekends planned to indulge in one of the great weekends of the year.  It's great to be back talking with you and I hope to see you all at the tailgates.  As always, check over at the blog for more stuff and your betting suggestions.  Expect some changes next week over there.

Enjoy,

Al

 

Week One Lines

Oregon vs LSU: LSU +1
Boise St vs Georgia: UGA +3.5
USF vs Notre Dame: USF +10
East Carolina vs South Carolina: ECU +20.5

WVU: -20.5




Pick one more game at your discretion.

2011 Betting Guidelines

A new year, new betting regulations.  After numerous arguments in which the Grey Bush accused Al and Chris of being degenerate gamblers who scoured the books for games that were played in such lofty establishment like the Kibbie Dome, we have revamped the rules.

As with last year, each participant must bet on the Mountaineers when they are in action.

Each player will be allowed to pick One game at random, at a preferable line throughout the week, similar to last year.  The only requirement is that both teams must be Division 1 squads.

The new twist is that there will be four pre-selected football games, with a pre-selected line.  These games will consist of either large nationally relevant games or games that just happen to peak our interest as good matchups.  Selected games and lines will be posted either Sunday or Monday night.

Finally, during Big East conference play, an additional game will be pre-selected from the conference lineup, not including WVU games (ie Rutgers vs USF).

So, you can have any where from 5-7 games to pick during the week depending on whether there are Mountaineer games or other in conference Big East games.  Money distribution will be determined later.

For week ones preselected games:

Oregon vs LSU in the house that Jerry built.
Boise St vs Georgia
USF vs Notre Dame
East Carolina vs South Carolina.  If you combine their mascots you get a cock pirate.  Just Saying.

Al