After an admittedly rough go last year in the picks, I'm back at it for another year. Let me first say for the record that I don't care for the way this is set up. Perhaps choosing only one game that I would actually put my hard earned (okay I work for the state, make that easily earned) cash on is no way to gamble. It's certainly no way to separate one gambler from another with regard to who is best at spotting weak lines and exploiting them to grind out a profit (or in the case of last year hemorrhaging money for me) over the course of the season. By locking in these marquee games as must plays, we will be wagering on very heavily bet games containing little or no value.
Ok I'm off my soap box. Given the current setup, I will make my contest picks each week and then down below, list my actual wagers placed for the weekend. I know it's likely that nobody cares how I do, but I enjoy having a forum to use to share my picks and analysis so there you have it. In my mind our contest can be a fun exercise in luck while my serious wagering can be displayed also.
Without further ado:
Contest picks:
1.) LSU +1: From a focus standpoint having your starting QB suspended due to a bar fight is never good, but from an impact on the game perspective I believe Jordan Jefferson's absence will have minimal effects. Jarrett Lee has played plenty of football for the Bayou Bengals and this game will be decided along the line of scrimmage anyway. LSU is scary good and scary deep on both the offensive and defensive lines. I expect the Tigers to gradually wear down the smaller, quicker Ducks as the game goes on and use a power run game with some play action pass along with a stingy defense to pull out a close one.
2.) UGA +3.5: This is a classic example of what I meant in my rant. I have looked at this game from several angles and there is absolutely no reason to bet this game. Anyone that tells you they know what's going to happen here is lying. Way too many unknowns on both sides. The only thing we do know is both QBs are very good. Georgia scheduled this game to get back in the national conversation and I at least would expect them to be very focused in what is a huge year for Mark Richt. I'll take the Dawgs close to home simply because I am a perennial non-believer in Boise.
3.)USF +10: I simply think this line is 3 pts too high. Then again ND is always a public darling so we shouldn't be overly surprised. Sure the Irish closed with 4 wins last year including a dominant showing against a coachless Miami team in the Sun Bowl but I think it's probably another year or so until Brian Kelley gets the ideal players for his system. Also consider that USF has won early in the season at Auburn and Florida State. Consider that Skip's ECU team beat WVU and VT in back to back weeks 3 years ago. Put it together and I don't think USF will be intimidated. If they can play their usual solid D and put the walking turnover BJ Daniels in low risk positions to succeed, the Bulls will be in this game until the end.
4.) Cocky -20.5: I have very little feel for this game but if Spurrier's boys are as good as preseason pollsters seem to think they are, they should probably cover this number. Marcus Lattimore is absolutely awesome. That is all.
5.) WVU -20.5: If Marshall's secondary plays as poorly as they did last year, we score 50 in this game. My concern coming into this year is the middle of the defense. It is going to be hard to replace Neild and I think good power running teams will exploit us up the middle. Fortunately, Marshall doesn't fit that criteria. I do expect the Cato kid at QB to be impressive at times for the Herd. He supposedly throws a very catchable ball, and is very mobile and elusive. However, starting a 180 pound true freshman for the first time in Morgantown with DE ends like Julian Miller and Bruce Irvin bearing down on him is not a recipe for success. I look for at least a 42-14 type of score here but I am hoping for a merciless beating. 77-0 would suffice.
6.) Mississippi State -27.5: The Bulldogs beat Memphis 49-7 last year with their backup QB. Memphis is literally one of the worst teams in the country and Miss St should be much improved this year under Dan Mullen. The game is on the road but let's be honest, there will be more maroon clad fans ringing cowbells than Tiger fans in the Liberty Bowl.
Actual week one wagers (my lines may be slightly better than the ones we are locked into as I shop for the best one available):
2.2 units to win 2:
Miss St -27: see above
Missouri -17: beat Miami U 51-13 last yr. Line is simply too short
USF +10.5: see above
LSU +2: see above
WVU -20.5: see above
Texas A&M -15.5: If Mike Sherman's team is really going to be an elite squad they'll win decisively against a decent SMU team.
Parlay of these 6 above: .5 untis to win 20 units
3 sweetheart teases at 2 units to win 2 units apiece (Even odds bets in which you move 3 lines in your favor 10 points but they all must hit to win.
Number 1 : Miss St -17, Mizzou -7, USF +20.5
Number 2 : LSU +12, WVU -10.5, Texas A&M -5.5
Number 3 : Texas -12.5, Southern Cal -11, Michigan -3.5
Late additions:
2.2 units to win 2
Wake +7: I was going to lay off this game but the more I looked into it I think the Demon Deacons warrant a play. This is one of Al Grohs most experienced teams since the 2006 Orange Bowl squad. This program reminds me a bit of WVU under Nehlen in that every 5 or 6 years they have a chance to be very very good. It's that time again in Winston Salem. I also expect a slight backslide from Syracuse. They were fortunate to go virtually injury free last year and were also 4-0 in games decided by 7 points or less. That good fortune isn't likely to continue.
1.1 units to win 1
WVU/Marshall ov 52.5: I don't normally bet many football totals but this one looks good. WVU could cover this by themselves and I expect Marshall to score a couple TDs
Murray St +30: Ok If your calling this an action wager you would be correct. I know I'll be sitting in front of the TV, ESPNU on cold beer in hand at 6 p.m. on Thursday. However I do have a basis for this play other than being a degenerate gambler. The Racers averaged 34 pts a game last year in their pass heavy offense. I expect the Cards to be slightly worse this year and their secondary starts the year incredibly thin.
That's plenty of action for week 1, good luck to all and remember, a dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned.
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