Week one record: 3-9
Week two record: 4-5
Week three record: 5-9
Week four record 8-2-1
You mess with the bull, you get the horns, or in this case, hooves as well. While an overall record of 20-25-1 is not where you want to be through four weeks of posted plays, we did win back nearly half of what we lost over the preceding three weeks with our ridiculous onslaught on the books this past Saturday. However, any idiot can have a good week. The name of this game is consistency and I hope to find some as we trudge past the halfway point of the college football season. With that in mind, feast your eyes on 13 plays for your gambling enjoyment.
Oregon St +21 This is my favorite play so far this season. First of all Oregon State has beaten the mighty Trojans two out of the last four years. The Beavers always start out slow and mold into form perhaps because they play so many juco-transfers. Regardless Mike Riley's team always hits its stride in the second half of the season and it appears that's starting to happen this year as well. The Beavers are always well coached and seem to get more out of what they have than anybody else in the Pac 10. The Trojans are very much like Alabama in that they can always get up and perform well in the big games, but just can't seem to muster the same kind of emotion and and mental edge the following week to back it up. We've already seen this once this season with an emotional at Ohio State followed by a faceplant at Washington the next week. I don't have to remind avid college football fans of the distasters against Oregon St and Stanford in prior years. This is a classic sandwhich game for the men of Troy, just after the ND game and just before the Oregon game that could decide who goes to the Rose Bowl. Peeking ahead? I think so. The Beavers may not win but I think they will be safely inside this number.
Miami -4.5. My hard on for the Canes is reaching epic and dangerous proportions but color me confused with this line. Clemson always underachieves and I'm not sold that a 38-3 thrashing last week of a pretty mediocre Wake Forest team is any indication they can come on the road against a top 10 team like Miami and keep the game competitive into the 4th quarter. Mark Whipple has the Canes offense moving. Look for that to continue on Saturday as they roll to a relatively easy win.
FSU +3.5 I like the Noles in the battle for who has had the most disappointing season in the ACC (with apologies to NC State) Florida State has been great offensively and can obviously score with most teams. Their defense is where they have had problems. I just don't believe UNC has the tools to exploit that weakness. The Tar Heels might be the worst 4-2 team in the country (with apologies to Rutgers). Take out their I-AA games against The Citadel and Georgia Southern and they have averaged a whopping 13. 25 points a game. That won't be enough to get it done on Thursday night.
Army +10.5 Army has already upset Vanderbilt this year on the banks of the Hudson and I'm not sold Rutgers is much better than those Commodores. The Scarlet Knight defense is rounding into form but they are still maddeningly inconsistent on offense. I'm also a sucker for the triple option offense Army has gone back to under their new coach, which is always hard for any defense to prepare for. Add in a rare ESPN national televised visit to Michie Stadium on Friday night and I think the Black Knights of the Hudson can keep this one close.
USF +7 I feel like Pitt is just barely playing well enough to win games and eventually that has to catch up with them. I understand that most logic points to fading the Bulls during their annual October swoon but something tells me that their fast D-line gets to Bill Stull early and often while containing Pitt's Dion Lewis on the ground. Hopefully B. J Daniels is a week older and wiser this Saturday as he continues to develop and get comfortbale with his new starting role. If he takes care of the football and the defense plays as they know how, The Bulls will be right back in the Big East race.
GT -5 I'm really bucking the trends here backing USF in October and fading the Woos during thier annual save Al Groh's job campaign. I just think this Jacket team is a different animal and they are highly motivated after beating VT to get right in the thick of their division race in the ACC. Granted this is a bit of a letdown spot and the Cavs have relied on a nasty defense, giving up just a shade over 6 points per game during their 3-game winning streak. However, having not faced an offense like GT's I think you can throw that out. I like the Jackets to win comfortbaly.
WVU -7 More than a couple of knowledgeable people have expressed concerns over this game. Not me. While it's impossible to predict how Uconn will react to the horrible tragedy that has befallen them, the X's and O's are in our favor. The Huskies strength is running, which we have proven we can stop, and they lack the weapons to test our pass defense. While JB's injury is a concern, if he plays I expect the offense to not miss a beat. If there is any doubt, Gino will start and he's proven quite competent in his own right. I like us by around 2 TDs
Tenn +15.5 Ahh yes the traditional third Saturday in October game. Not a lot of analysis here. It's obvious the Vols are getting better as evidenced by their blowout against UGA in which the normally moribund Jonathan Crompton looked more like the second coming of Peyton Manning. Offense aside, the UT D is just plain nasty, and with Bama, by it's nature having a conservative run the ball offense, this number just simply looks too high.
Mich St +1.5 Man, how much more cash would we have if I didn't fade Iowa every week? Plenty more. Oh well, call me stubborn but a I like Sparty here. I won't bore you with my Hawkey analysis, it's very very well documented. This play is all about Mich St. It appears outlasting the Wolverines in overtime gave them the confidence needed to save their season. They have backed it up with wins over Illinois and Northwestern, not exactly juggernauts but wins nontheless. These teams are excruciatingly boring and predictable in their play calling, I like the Spartans to finally expose the Iowa charade at home at night for the pleasure of the dozens of Big 10 network viewers watching worldwide.
Miss St +23 First of all UF rarely covers these large numbers. The cowbells will be rocking in Starkville for a rare home night game and the Bulldogs have proven to be a pesky opponent for the Gators in the past. Add in Dan Mullen's familiarity with the Gator offense and this looks to be a fairly competetive game.
Auburn +8 Auburn stumbles into this tilt after two very dissapoointing losses and Tiger stadium at night is no place to head licking your wounds. Add in that this is a mad Tiger team looking to avenge their loss to Florida two weeks ago and you might like the other side. I just can't shake the fact that LSU is just plain inept on offense. They were damn lucky to beat Miss St, damn luckier to beat UGA and then got beat by UF. If they were stumbling in themselves after 3 straight losses what might this line look like? It was a couple plays from happening. I like the Auburn to get their offense in gear and score enough to make this a final possession type game.
Michigan +4.5 This is another team I've been consistently backing with very little success this year. However, aside from last year the Victors have just owned Penn St and especially at the Big House. Add in the fact that PSU is just 3-7 against the number in their last 10 and I have to take the team getting points at home.
Idaho +16 Last but not least by a longshot let's put down a fistful of dollars on Rob Aikey's 6-1 Idaho Vandals. Who else is holding out for College Gameday in Boise Nov. 14 for 9-1 Idaho against 9-0 Boise St in the de facto WAC Championship game? Dare to dream my friends dare to dream. They only way it could be better is if the game were in Moscow and the show had to find a way to set up in Idaho's mini dome. In any even the Vandals have just found ways to win this year in turning around what had been just an absolutely dreadful program the last several years. While they may not be ready to compete for a league title yet, that same determination should allow them to keep this game relativly competitive.
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