Week one record: 3-9
Week two record: 4-5
Well at this point as you look at my 7-14 posted record many of you have got to be asking yourselves, how has this man ever made a cent in gambling? He may as well just light hundred dollar bills on fire. Hey, what can I say? Over the last two weeks you would be right. I did find a way to have winning weeks in the first three weeks of the season and have been utterly snake bit since starting my contributions to this fine blog. On the plus side my confidence is not shaken. I'm a grinder and I fully expect things to turn around.
As for last week, the only real screw job came courtesy of our beloved Mountaineers. When Ryan Clarke burst into the end zone for what I was sure would be a backdoor cover I thought the gambling Gods had given me one, only to have Cody Hawkins march down the field in the final seconds against our non-existent secondary and rob me blind. As one of my buddies texted me : "Has there ever been a double backdoor?" Yes, yes there has been. Leave it to me to be on the wrong side.
A special thanks goes out to Syracuse and Louisville for sucking last week as well. Anybody want to set an over/under on total turnovers in the Dome Saturday? I say 6.5 and I'll take the under.
I have a card fatter than Charlie Weiss and Ralph Friedgen combined this week, serving up a whopping 14 plays for your gambling pleasure. Come along as I steal from the West Virginia taxpayer by taking up the last hour of my shift making these picks. Let us begin.........The Long Road Back.
Missouri +3.5 Let's get things started with perhaps the best Thursday night game in recent memory. The Tigers have been one of the nicest surprises so far this season. Blaine Gabbert is making fans in Columbia forget about Chase Daniel, as he currently stands at 4th nationally in pass efficiency and has yet to throw a college interception while leading the Tigers to a 4-0 start. Gabbert takes on a Nebraska team he verbally committed to in 2007 before doing an about face and heading to Missouri. Nebraska lost to Va Tech in the only test they have had this season. I like them to lose their second one as well. I'll take a very capable home dog at night on national TV every time.
Auburn -2.5 Does anyone know what the total for this game is? I don't because I don't play them but anything less than 70 is probably too low. Auburn continues to be efficient if not goddy offensively and Arkansas can score with anyone behind the strength of Ryan Mallet's arm and Bobby Petrino's outstanding playcalling (God I hate to admit that. There isn't a bigger prick in the sport). The difference here will be on the defensive side of the ball. Arkansas' non-existent defense made a suspect UGA offense look like world beaters. I think Aubirns defense is at least serviceable and they can get the few stops necessary to win the game. Watch out for the Tigers. As they continue to gain confidence, they could make the race in the West very interesting.
WVU -10 Homer play of the week. This is fairly simple. The special teams matchups are largely even, the defenses are fairly poor on both sides, the diffferences come on offense. Make no mistake Cuse is better and the Paulus to Mike Williams combo will move the ball on us and put up some points, however, it's far easier to slow down a couple players than it is the 5 or 6 playmakers the Mountaineers bring to the table. It would take WVU to beat WVU. If we don't turn the ball over this is a laugher, if we do, it could get interesting. I say we're long overdue to play a fundamentally sound game.
Illinois +4.5 The juice is loose!.........er not so much. I thought my love of black QBs would take a hit with the benching of Juice this week but lucky for me Ron Zook has the same obsession with black QBs that I do. Eddie McGee appears to be a capable replacement and this type of move can often galvanize a team and provide a spark. Add in the fact that MSU quite simply isn't very good anyway and that they are in a perfect letdown spot after beating Michigan and you have all the makings of an upset.
UGA +2 The wrong team is favored here. I realize Georgia is not as good as in previous years but we can at least concede that they have looked solid at times. Hell, they were a proposterous excessive celebration call away from beating an LSU team that I'm supposed to believe is #4 in the nation. How then are they an underdog at UT, a team who has nothing more than a loud mouth coach and one of the nations best safeties going for them? I mean seriously, the Vols best win is an 11 point conquest of Ohio U. At least UGA has wins over South Carolina and Arizona State to their credit. As an aside can anyone tell me how a school like UT gets stuck with Jonathan Crompton? This guy makes Brad Lewis and Chad Johnston look like the second coming of Joe Montana and Peyton Manning.
Bama -4.5 I would play this game up to -7. It is a big game, and save for last season's bowl debacle against Utah, Saban teams almost always step up to the plate in hostile enviroments in big games. The man lives to get his teams ready for these games. The Ole Miss offense simply has not gelled and you certainly don't want to be looking for answers against a Nick Saban defense.
Wisconsin +16 I love fading Ohio State but keep in mind I fully expect the Buckeyes to win this game. As bad as OSU is in big non-conference games, they are that good in big Big 10 games. However this number is just too large. The Badgers are a grind it out old school team, running an offensive that by its nature, shortens the game, taking time off the clock. I'm not smitten with this team at 5-0 but if they can value the ball and establish their run game they can get this game well inside 16 points.
Uconn +7.5 This opened at +10 and man did I drop the ball not getting it in at that number. However I still like the Huskies. Read above for for Wiscy write up, the same thing applies here. Uconn runs the football, doesn't turn it over, and plays very solid defense. Pitt counters with a fantastic run game of their own and they have the ability, unlike Uconn st stretch the field with Jonathan Baldwin and Oderick Turner. All that said this Uconn D will be the best they have faced, and the Huskies have had success at Heinz winning in their last trip. If this game is close in the end do you want Wanny, a guy that makes good players average, or Edsall, a guy that makes average players good? Give me Randy every time.
Indiana +7 Ahhh the month of October, the leaves start to turn, a crisp chill fills the air, and Al Groh somehow rises from the dead and saves his job. After losing to William and Mary, TCU and a bad Soiuthern Miss team, the Hoos inexplicably beat UNC last week. This madness has to end sometime and it will this week. How the hell is this team favored by a touchdown against anyone in a BCS league? After making fun of Indiana in this space 2 weeks ago, they were game against Michigan and not so much against OSU but their running backs are solid and they are decent defensively. I like them to win this one straight up and finally put Al Groh and the long suffering UVA faithful out of their misery.
LSU +8.5 This is another number I wish I had gotten earlier when it opened at +10. Tiger Stadium is without question the most intimidating nightime environment in all of college football. My logic is simple: I would take LSU as a +8.5 dog at home at night against the Dallas Cowboys. Period. I'll be the first to admit this LSU team isn't as strong as recent years but you know what, even with Tebow it appears Florida isn't either. They still have no every down back and thier passing game is still somewhat suspect. I just can't see LSU losing to anybody in this setting by more than a TD. If Tebow plays, UF escpaes with a close win, if he doesn't the national title race gets a little bit more interesting.
Michigan +8 I keep betting on the Wolverines and they keep losing me money. If I keep knocking on the door sooner or later I'm going to kick the sucker in right? Let's hope. If you've read any of my stuff you know by now I have a borderline obsession with the amount of money Kirk Ferentz makes relative to his mediocre results. I'll fade him til I go broke. The guy needed every play to beat both Northern Iowa and Arkansas State. It's the same shit every game. Play solid D and an excruciatingly boring offense and wait for the other team to mess up. I think Mich wins straight up but even if they don't I see it as a TD game.
FIU -5.5 Let's call this one the degenerate special. That's right folks I'm laying down a fist full of dollars on Mario Cristobal and his Florida International Golden Panthers. My friends it simply gets no better than this when 0-4 WKU entertains 0-4 FIU Saturday night in Bowling Green, KY. It's ashame someone has to win. I wish I had gotten this at -3 but I'll take it at -5.5. While both teams are winless the difference here is in competitiveness. FIU hung tough with Bama in the first half, nearly beat Rutgers, and hung tough with a Toledo team this is great offensively. WKU hasn't played a single game within 2 TDs and lost 28-7 at home against the mighty 1-AA Bears of Central Arkansas. This appears to be one of the rare off the radar games that the books aren't up to speed on.
Toledo -7.5 Not much analysis here. Western is flat out terrible while I would term Toledo as average. One thing we know is the rockets can score in bunches. That ought to be enough to cover this number.
Kansas -19.5 How happy must Gene Chizik be to be out of Aimes? While the Cyclones somehow sport a 3-2 record they lost to KSU last week. That's more than enough for me. Add in the fact the the minumum points scored by Kansas this season is 34 and I'm backing Rock Chalk Jayhaw.
There you have it. Best of Luck to all!
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