Competition Record: 21-25-1
Hard Leans: 14-14
WVU: 3-3-1
Week 1: Competition Plays 1-4-1, Hard Leans 1-2
Week 2: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 2-3
Week 3: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 3-0
Week 4: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 1-1
Week 5: Competition Plays 2-3, Hard Leans 2-2
Week 6: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 2-1
Week 7: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 0-3
Week 8: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 3-2
Well at 6 games behind our fearless leader, it's time to rally or be a non-factor. I plan to do the former. As usual, I disagree very strongly with Aaron and Adam which, judging by my record is probably a good thing for them. I have to hope that eventually, some of the squarer, "more obvious" plays on the board stop hitting.
I will add analysis tomorrow but for now, just want to get the picks up. It will be a Saturday full of situational bets for me.
Competition Plays
1.) WVU -6.5 @ Uconn: I looked at every angle of this game and tried desperately to find something that would allow me to take the Huskies. I just couldn't find anything. The line is favorable due to our loss last week, and Zach Frazier is a walking turnover. We should be in a foul mood and out for blood and if that's the case, this game is an easy win. Love this spot for us.
2.) Kentucky +7 @ Miss St: This Kentucky team is on the verge of turning the corner and this will be the week it happens. Kentucky has played well in Starkville over the years. Don't let the score fool you in last weeks loss to Georgia...... Kentucky's defense played well only giving up 190 yards. Take a closer look at the boxscore 100 yards was by special teams on a kickoff return. So take the 100 yard return out of the equation and you have Kentucky D giving up 190 yds to Georgia's defense giving up 423 yards.
The last 5 games Kentucky'a record is 1-4 but they put up 31 or more points in that span.They can score at will and I think they stand a great chance to win straight up.
3.) Ole Miss +7 vs Auburn: This line tells you everything about how good the oddsmakers think Auburn really is. The number one team is only a TD favorite here to a team that has lost at home to Vanderbilt and Jacksonville State? Auburn has only played 2 road games, winning both by a FG.
The Tigers are coming off an emotional, physical game against LSU and are due for a letdown. Auburn's defense is absolutely nothing special. The Rebels are cranking out more than 400 yards and 30 points per game. Also, Gene Chizik admitted to going softer in practice this week to allow the Tigers some recovery. Finally, how about the Houston Nutt factor. In 12 plus years in the SEC the Right Reverend has beaten 21 ranked teams, 14 of them as an underdog. He almost always gets one a year. So I'm SAYIN THERE'S A CHANCE!!!
4.) Nebraska -7.5 vs Missouri: From Pat Forde - "Missouri has a football history that in many ways mirrors South Carolina's: Even the best of times tend to be tempered by some form of heartbreak." Will the statement win over Oklahoma leave Mizzou's tank empty in the second half in Lincoln?
5.) Oregon St. -2.5 vs Cal: It's not complicated folks. Bet Cal at home, fade them on the road.
6.) USC +6.5 vs Oregon: How is nobody talking about Matt Barkley for Heisman? He's got 20 TDs to just 4 ints and is on fire right now, having not thrown a pick in three straight games. The Trojans looked as though they put it together against California and have had a week off to scheme for the the Duck offense. While Monte Kiffin's defense has been suspect this year, give an old cus football coach a week to prepare when it's his team's super bowl, and I don't think you'll see Oregon running up and down the field as much this week. The "GameDay" trap dynamic is at play here as well for a fourth straight week after taking down Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma.
Hard Leans
1.) Temple -27.5 vs Akron (Sorry Grey Bush): Temple is the class of the MAC while Akron is likely the worst team in the country. Would have played anything under 5 TDs
2.) Iowa -6 vs Michigan State: Sparty has been a really nice story but let's face reality. They are undefeated largely because of 2 fake punts, one to survive at home against a bad Notre Dame team and one to survive on the road at a mediocre Northwestern team. The win and cover at NW was blind luck. This is in no way a dominant team and it's simply a matter of when, not if, the Spartans will get caught with their pants down. Kinnick Stadium and the opportunistic Hawkeys will take care of that.
3.) Maryland -5 vs Wake Forest: Simply thought this line was short and would have played anything under a TD.
4.) Air Force +7 vs Utah: They're almost all close in this series. They've played 26 times, and the difference in total points between the two is 19. Seventeen of the 26 meetings have been decided by eight or fewer points, including each of the past five. I would like the Falcons a lot more if fullback Jared Tew hadn't broken his leg against SDSU last week. Regardless, in a series like this, with two good teams, the smart money takes the points at home.
To borrow from golf vernacular, it's moving day for me this Saturday. With just five or six weeks to go it's time to put up or shut up.
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