Pigskin Prognosticator Week Five Picks

Competition Record: 11-12-1
Hard Leans: 7-6
WVU: 2-1-1

Week 1: Competition Plays 1-4-1, Hard Leans 1-2
Week 2: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 2-3
Week 3: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 3-0
Week 4: Competition Plays 2-4, Hard Leans 1-1

Rough week 4 but at least nobody else set the world on fire. I'm busy trying to catch up on some things after an epic trip so less analysis and hopefully more winners this week.

1.) Hawaii -8 vs La Tech: This is as public and square a play as it gets but I simply can't see a La Tech team struggling to pick up a new system making this ludicrous road trip and hanging around against a Hawaii team that has looked very good offensively at times this year.

2.) Iowa -7 vs Penn St.: The Hawkeyes are as solid as it gets with the lone loss this season coming at Arizona when they dug a huge hole and still nearly came back. This is a Penn St team still searching offensively and one that to be honest, probably should have lost to Temple. Iowa D will hold them in check.

3.) Bowling Green -3 vs Buffalo: BG has played a brutal road schedule to get ready for league play and save for last week in the Big House they haven't looked bad in doing so. Buffalo on the other hand opens up conference play on the road in a year of transition.

4.) Northwestern -5 at Minnesota: The Wildcats always seem to win 7 or 8 games desite their obvious disadvantages. They roll in confident and unbeaten while the hapless Gophers have to wonder what the hell has happened since a decent opening night win at Middle Tennessee.

5.) ECU +13.5 at UNC: It's ECU's super bowl and they should be able to exploit a young UNC secondary. There are concerns with pass protection, but if the Pirates have improved that at all since the VT game two weeks ago, they should be able to score and be competitive in this one. A straight up win wouldn't shock me.

Hard Leans: (Games I'm wagering that didn't make cut)

IU +10 vs Michigan: Ben Chappel is a stud qb running an underrated offense but this is a huge step up in competition for the Hoosiers and their D worries me. However, Michigan's atrocious defense should also be tested and Rich Rod has been comically bad in Big Ten road games.

Navy +10 at Air Force: That's a lot of points for two option oriented attacks

Toledo -3 vs Wyoming: Toledo has won 3 straight road games after being embarrassed at home by Arizona to start the season, including a win at Purdue last week. Pretty impressive. They return home with confidence to face a Wyoming team that played better in a loss to Air Force sat but has to be gassed after opening up with a brutal schedule. The odd trip across country here won't help.

Florida +8 at Bama: Just don't see it getting out of hand and Gators made serious offensive strides last week.