These stats go back to 2004. It seems like betting the favorites is a good recipe for week 1 success but not always as the following stats would seem to suggest.
Favorites are 99-69-2 (58.9%) overall in opening week games.
The worst year for the favorites was last year when they went 20-20.
Although the favorites dominated vs. the spread, they were only 7-14 when the spread was between 3 1/2 - 4 1/2.
When the spread was between 5 - 9 1/2 (But not 7, I fear for my Akron pick), the favorites were 21-5-1. (amazing percentage) When the spread is exactly 7 the favorites were only 4-6.
When the spread was between 16 1/2 - 21 1/2,the favorites were 19-5-1.
When the spread was between 24 1/2 - 25 1/2 the favorites were 6-0.
Chalk was 7-1 when the spread was between 29 1/2 - 38 1/2 (Hello Texas this week) and 0-2 when the spread was over 41. Spreads up to the high 30s with opening week favorites seem to be absolute money.
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