Pigskin Prognosticator Week Two Picks

Competition record: 1-4-1
WVU record: 0-0-1
Hard Leans record: 1-2

It was a pathetic opening week for me, culminating in Boise destroying my most confident play of the week this evening. Disastrous start for Tech. The thing that still amazes me is that Tech was unable to consistently run the ball when they had to, instead doing an excellent job of passing to move the football. Nothing was more telling about Tech's night offensively than when they had the ball with under four minutes left with a chance to run the clock out with a few first downs late. The Hokie Oline simply could not push around a tired Boise defense, opting instead to pass on 3rd down to seal it when they could have run and at the very least run more clock. They had zero confidence in their workhorse backs ability to run the ball. In the words of Alex Trabek on celebrity Jeopardy, simply stunning. Kudos to Alan for vehemently disagreeing with me all week and for the most part being correct.

Now to the matter of digging myself out of the hole in this competition. In light of the circumstances of the past weekend, one could reasonably assume I'm up at 1 a.m. "on tilt" due to my losses of the past weekend. That's partially it, but moreover I wanted to get a few lines in before they moved against me.

From henceforth my picks will never again be titled using the word "Philanthropy"

Less analysis, hopefully more winners

1.) Miss St +2 vs Auburn: This pick will likely be unpopular this week. However, I loved what I saw from Miss St's passing game, all be it against a horrendous Memphis team. Conversely, Auburn still hasn't improved its defense from a year ago, giving up 26 points to an Arkansas State team that was breaking in a new QB. Auburn can score in bunches, however, freshman phenom qb Cameron Newton makes his first road start in what will likely be a hostile Scott Stadium. I also favor the coaching matchup between an emerging Dan Mullen and the much maligned Gene Chizik. I'll take the Thursday night home dog which is more often than not, a good bet. Hope to hear the cow bells all night.

2.) ECU -12.5 vs Memphis: Ahh yes the horrendous Memphis team mentioned above. They are in the midst of a QB controversy but have already named Cannon-Smith, son of Fred Smith (owner of Fed Ex who is offering to pay money to get Memphis in a BCS league) the starter despite the fact that he played far worse than his backup. Shocking news I know. Meanwhile ECU comes off a thrilling home win over Tulsa and while a letdown is a concern, they can light up the scoreboard and should be able to at least hold the putrid Tigers offense in check enough to cover this number. This spread will climb, which is why I want to get it in now.

3.) South Carolina -2.5 vs UGA: Georgia QB Aaron Murray is going to be a good one but the freshman may have a rough time Saturday in his first road start against the Gamecock's nasty defense. However, the true logic behind this pick is that I believe this is finally the year Steve Spurrier's team has a great chance to win the SEC east. (or at least finish second to Fla in close game) Stephen Garcia is a solid QB and they have always had great skill people. The question has been the offensive line and the ability to give Garcia time to throw. I think I saw enough against a decent Southern Miss team to indicate the line may be a strong this year. This is a must win league game for both squads in week 2. I will take the Sr QB at home vs the Fr QB on the road at an under fg line every time.

4.) Texas A&M -18.5 vs La Tech: Not a lot to say here. The Techsters are having a very difficult time picking up Sonny Dykes' system as evidenced by their pathetic 20-6 victory over a woeful Grambling State team. They now roll into College Station to face Jerrod Johnson and Co. I had this spread at -28. Should get damn ugly.

5.) Bama -10.5 vs Penn State: I know Alabama will likely have Mark Ingram sitting out this game due to injury but I imagine they will do just fine with Trent Richardson taking the bulk of the carries. True freshman Rob Bolden makes his first road start in Bryant-Denny Stadium and a slow start similar to last week's 7-3 deficit at the end of the first quarter to Youngstown State will likely bury the Nittany Lions. I look for Saban's defense to overwhelm this young qb, holding the PSU scoring in the 10-14 range, allowing for a relatively comfortable cover.

6.) WVU -13.5 at School that will not be named: This line is going to climb and getting it under 2 TDs is the sole reason I'm sacrificing sleep to post at the ungodly hour that has now surpassed 2 a.m. However, I'll be furious if that becomes a factor. I won't use logic or compare matchups here. The spread could be -100 and I would take WVU. I hate this school and it's delusional fans with their inferiority complexes worse than anything in sports. I hope they go 0-12 every year and we can't beat them bad enough to suit me. 81-0, 92-6, whatever, let's make it worse. I'm waking up the ghosts of the 1915 WVU coach Sol Metzer and vowing to "eat my own hat if this sad Marshall team scores a point"

Best of the Rest: (Games I will also be wagering on that just missed cut)

Hard lean: SMU -12.5 vs UAB: The Mustangs ran into a buzz saw at Texas Tech yet managed to rally for the backdoor cover and look impressive offensively doing so. They return home to face a UAB team that was beaten at home by Florida Atlantic.

Hard Lean: Michigan +4 at Notre Dame: It appears Rich has found a QB and there is no doubting the incredible speed the Wolverines possess. They certainly passed the eye test in week one. The defense even looked decent. On the other hand, Notre Dame didn't exactly look like world beaters against a less than stellar Purdue squad. I'm going with the coach that is much further along in his rebuilding process. Regardless of the outcome, let's all just pray for some sort of horrific natural disaster at Notre Dame Stadium.

Hard Leans added Wed afternoon: (games I will wager on that didn't make cut)

Hard Lean: Miami +9.5 vs Ohio State: Upon further reflection screw it, the U is back! Seriously, Miami is healthy, and so is Jacory Harris. He was virtually unstoppable early last season before getting dinged up. I look for him and Terelle Pryor to go tit for tat in a classic game.

Hard Lean: Tennessee +13.5 vs Oregon: First of all Oregon is getting waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much credit for a laughably easy win over a hapless New Mexico team. This line should have been 7 or 8 and was inflated due to that beating. Secondly, I love the angle of of UT's defensive coaches having recent experience scheming for Oregon. UT's new defensive coordinator served in the same roll at Boise the last two years, shutting down the ducks in the process.

Drunken add on Saturday evening: Hard Lean: USC -19.5 vs UVA: I expect the trojans to play better this week, looking for late night action and UVA is dreadful.

Games I agonized over but couldn't pull trigger on:

Tulane +21 vs Ole Miss: So let me get this straight, Tulane beats their I-aa foe, Ole Miss loses to theirs and yet the Green Wave is a 21 point home dog? Gambling is never that easy from a logical standpoint. I must be missing something.

Ga Tech -13 at Kansas: Kansas was embarrassed at home in their opener, losing 6-3 to North Dakota State. Georgia Tech dispatched their I-aa opp 41-10 but the defense appeared shaky and trigger man Joshua Nesbitt is the lone remaining piece of that vaunted option attack from a year ago. I'm too afraid Turner Gil will summon a spirited effort from his team which is probably already being left for dead in Lawrence.