Competition Record: 9-8-1
Hard Leans: 6-5
WVU: 1-1-1
Week 1: Competition Plays 1-4-1, Hard Leans 1-2
Week 2: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 2-3
Week 3: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 3-0
Well last week was very encouraging as I went 7-2 overall. I was somewhat unlucky that both losses came in the competition picks but what can ya do? Hopefully I am starting to get on a roll.
I would be remiss without complimenting my competitors at this point. The fact that all four of us are over .500 three weeks and 18 picks into the season is very impressive.
And away we go.........
1.) UGA +1 at Mississippi State: Desperation is a key motivating factor for any football team. The Dawgs simply cannot afford to drop to an unthinkable 0-3 in SEC play. While their o-line and lack of big playmakers on offense is a concern, I look for a spirited effort this week in Starkville. Also, UGA looked better than I expected against a very good Arkansas team and almost pulled it out, while Miss St appears to still be a year or two away and is having real problems with turnovers.
2.) Oklahoma -13.5 at Cincy: Sometimes you just have to take the obvious play. While the line movement scares me (it opened at -17 and fell like a rock to -13.5) I see no way the Bearcats can hang in this game. If their oline couldn't protect Collaros against Fresno and NC State, I really fear for Collaros' safety in this game. On the other side of the ball, OU has a wealth of playmakers going against a UC defense that has been torched twice this year and has no depth. The line is low due to the look ahead factor for the Sooners, who have Texas on deck, but it won't matter. Sooners big.
3.) Stanford -4.5 at Notre Dame: I really thought the Irish would be better than this. I guess I drank the Brian Kelly can do anything immediately Kool-aid. They have beaten a bad Purdue team and lost to Michigan and Michigan State teams that I would call just above avg. The Notre Dame defense is absolutely atrocious, whiile Stanford has a top 3 pick NFL quarterback to go with one of the most dominating offensive lines in the country.
4.) South Carolina +3 at Auburn: As I said in this space two weeks ago, I believe this is the year the Gamecocks finally win or come in 2nd in the SEC east. They finally have a decent offensive line to protect Garcia and the Lattimore kid is a stud RB. Auburn meanwhile is a bit overvalued after scraping by Miss St. and Clemson. They were incredibly lucky to beat Clemson last week. Wonder what this line would be if they had lost? Wrong team favored here, go Cocks.
5.) Oregon -11.5 at Arizona State: We got an incredible number here due to the Sun Devil's close loss against a Wisconsin team that I simply don't think is very good. This Sun Devil defense is absolutely terrible, setting up another playstation like day for Oregon's offensive skill players. To cover this number ASU would have to score at minimum 28 points and perhaps far more. Not happening.
6.) WVU +9.5 at LSU: I have preached this all offseason and I will say it again. If we win the turnover battle in Baton Rouge, we win the football game. Period. The Tigers have an anemic offense that settled for 5 Fgs last week against Miss St while the defense fattened up on five Bulldog turnovers. Their strength is running and you simply aren't going to just line up and run on the 3-3-5. Forcing them to pass likely plays into our favor with or without Brandon Hogan (I think he'll play) simply because Jordan Jefferson is brutal, completing just over 55% of his passes for 2 TDs and 2 INTs against less than stellar competion. Admittedly the Tiger's defense is nasty and if we put the ball on the ground as we have in each of the first three games and kill drives or give them field position it could get away from us in a hurry. I don't think there will be many points. I look for us to manage the game, take care of the ball and be right there at the end. Who knows, we may even get a fast start like against UGA, OKlahoma or Auburn. We seem to come ready in huge games.
Hard Lean: NC State +8.5 at Georgia Tech: I think this will be Tom Obrien's best Wolfpack team, this line seems high and the Yellow Jackets aren't close to what they were last year. However, NCSU has beaten a bad 1-aa, UCF, and a bad Cincy team. That doesn't exactly tell me much. Plus, they are historically brutal on the road. For all those reasons I left this off the competition picks.
Hard Lean: Southern Miss -3.5 at La Tech: Who needs logic? Why not fade Sonny Dykes' team all year? It's sure as hell worked so far.
Wow, I can't believe all 8 of my plays are on road teams. That's nerve-wracking to say the least but I like the card a lot anyway.
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