Competition Record: 5-6-1
Hard Leans: 3-5
WVU: 0-1-1
Week 1: Competition Plays 1-4-1, Hard Leans 1-2
Week 2: Competition Plays 4-2, Hard Leans 2-3
Well, last week at least reassured me that I am seeing things relatively clearly. I went 4-2 in the competition picks and 2-3 on Hard Leans for 6-5 overall The shit of it is, I was 2-0 on my originally posted Hard Leans but my 3 adds through the week, including my drunken late USC add proved disastrous. Could have easily been 6-2 week instead of 6-5 but hey, if mom had a dick she'd be dad. I've waited longer to post this week and given that I will be drunk all day Saturday, there will not be any adds. And away we go.
1.) Illinois -7 vs No. Illinois: Being the college football junky that I am, I watched a good portion of No. Illinois' opener at Iowa State. They were dreadful then and didn't exactly reassure me last week in barely beating North Dakota. The Zookers are no world beaters but they should be able to cover this spot that I believe is a TD too low. Despite the intangibles that the Huskies bring into this game, the talent gap is just too vast.
2.) Navy -3.5 at La Tech: This may be a reoccuring theme for me as I see absolutely no reason to stop fading Sonny Dykes' disfunctional La Tech squad. Texas A&M covered easily vs this team, rushing for 216 yards The Middies may double that. Their close win over Ga Southern does not concern me.
3.) Utah St +5.5 vs Freson State: Two factors here. I think UTSU is the second best team in the WAC this season behind Boise and I believe this is a classic look ahead sandwhich spot for Fresno on the road with a game against SEC foe OLe Miss the following week. Pat Hill's team has a habit of beating or scaring the big boys and then laying an egg in conference play. They are also a completely different team on the road historically.
4.) Arkansas +2.5 at UGA: I think Arkansas will be in the mix in the West this year and to be there they will have to beat the Dawgs for the first time in 6 years. It's a tall order but with A.J Green out and the absurd wealth of talent the Hogs possess at the skill position, their opportunity to win a game in this series has never been better. They will score, it's just a matter of whether they can slow UGA.
5.) Tennessee +14.5 vs Florida: I thought Florida would be vulnerable this year and their pull away 38-14 win over USF did nothing to change that in my mind. 21 of the Gator's points were scored off turnovers, most handed to them by the walking turnover himself, B.J Daniels. If the Bulls had taken care of the football in this contest it would have been quite a game. Despite losing cash on the Vols last week when they were embarassed in the 2nd half against Oregon, I am willing to bite again. If they don't turn the ball over as they did last week, they should have a great chance to get inside this number. Having just played the speed of Oregon should help them as well.
6.) WVU -10 vs Maryland: Not sure I would have played this at -13.5 but I'll bite here. I'm not actually betting this game as I literally have no idea what will happen but I broke it down this way. Comebacks like the one last week can be the spark a team needs. Remember Louisville 2005? Ok ludicrous comparison I know as the Cards were a great team but we can hope that the magical comeback this year sets a similiar fire under the team. We've been searching for an identity and perhaps we found one as a pass first team that sets up the run through the air. I'm hoping, we'll see. Also, Maryland looked inept offensively against Navy and were extremely fortunate to win. (see Navy's clock management)
Hard Leans: (Games I'm wagering on that just missed the cut)
Indiana -12 at WKU: WKU might be the worst team in the country and despite IU's historical struggles they should have a potent offense this year. I believe they score in the 40s which should be enough to cover this with comfort. The thing that kept this off the competition for me was IU's 0-3-1 record ATS as a road favortie the last 10 years. It's certainly not a spot they are used to.
VT-19.5 vs ECU: Some will no doubt think I'm crazy but you have to understand what Vegas is selling here. Why in the world would they make Tech a 17 point fav over a team that plays them tough historically, right after they lost to a I-aa team? The answer? Vegas thinks that loss was an anomaly and they are betting on Tech to cover. Don't believe me? This line opened at -17 and 75% of the public is on ECU. That should make the line creep down toward 15, however it's gone up to 19.5. ECUs D is ridiculously porous. Tech will score at will and their D, while shaky, will get enough stops to hold an ECU team that has fattened up offensively on Tulsa and Memphis teams that simply play no defense. In fact, ECU was fortunate to cover for me last week. They beat Memphis by 22 but in doing so Memphis tturned it over on their first 3 possessions, all resulting in ECU TDs. This is going to be a public blood bath. Be sharp, lay the points with the Hokies. I wouldn't be shocked if the Pirates covered late in this one but the odds are with VT.
Notre Dame +3.5 at Michigan State: 3.5 is a key number in football wagering, specifically when betting a game that always seems to be a classic. In the last 10 yrs this game has been decided by more than a touchdown just once. In 3 of the last 5 years it has been decided by a FG. I believe had Crist not been out for the middle part of the game last week the result easily could have been diffferent. Also, an Irish defense, thought to be pretty weak, actually looked decent against Michigan in the 2nd half last week. I'll take the points and hope for another classic finish as I watch this prime time affair at Bugsys in Morgantown.
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